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MARKET TREND Firmer CZ, Up 1, SX, Up 1, WZ up 7

September 14, 2018 08:24 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Firmer:  CZ, +$.0075; SX, +$.0275; WZU, +$.03; KWZ, +$.03
  • MACRO:  Nothing really new although wire services allude to hope for an improvement in U.S./Chinese trade talks. ASIA: Mostly Higher: Nikkei, +1.20%;Shanghai, -0.18%; Hang Seng, +1.01%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.28%; FTSE,+0.22%; CAC, +0.29%.  WALL STREET: Futures are firmer: DOW, +36; S&P, +4.25;NAS, +26.50.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.28 @ $68.87; Dec Gold: +$3.00 @ $1,211; Dec $ Index-0.047 @ 94.0505.  DELY: SBM, 11; SBO, 282; C, 41; HRW, 7; SB, 33; SRW, 2

·        T-storm Weather: Dry & mild weather continue over the next 5-7 days in central U.S.  A seasonably-stormy period begins from northwest to southeast Sep. 18-20, producing generalized rain of 0.50"-1.50" across northwest half of Corn Belt & much of the Plains, with lesser totals of 0.25”-0.75” to the east & south.  Hurricane Florence makes landfall in southeast NC today & produces heavy rain in corn, soybean, SRW wheat, & hog areas of central & eastern NC where flooding is likely from 5.00" to 10.00"+ totals

·       CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.5125; CH, up $.01 @ $3.6375.  The funds were modest sellers on Thursday, 5 K           

  • SX, up $.0275 @ $8.37; SF, up $.0250 @ $8.4950.  Funds: Sold 6 SB, 4 SBM & 3 SBO. Board Crush: $1.57, -3, LY: $.88
  • WZ, up $.03 @ $5.00; WH, up $.0350 @ $5.2125.  The funds sold 8 K yesterday   

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       D​ecember 2018 corn futures on Thursday traded to a contract low of $3.48 ¾ before closing $0.02 lower at $3.50 ½

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn harvest on average increases 3% over Sep. 9-16; largest increase since 2009 was 11% in 2012

  • T-storm Weather: The exact setup for the last 10 days of Sep. for central U.S. will take some time to determine, but a cooler period is probable to develop with time as the extended period of summer weather fully breaks in 10-14 days

·       ATI Research: Unshipped 18/19 export sales of U.S. corn as of Sep. 6 stood at 569 mbu, which is up 49% from 385 mbu at this time a year ago

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: The 5-year average for U.S. soybean harvest as of Sep. 16 is approximately 3%

  • T-storm Weather: Occasional rains affect soybeans across the western U.S. Corn Belt & Plains starting Sep. 18-19
  • ATI Research: Unshipped 18/19 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Sep. 6 stood at 592 mbu, which is up 2% from 582 mbu at this time a year ago

·       T-storm Weather: Significant rain likely over next 2 weeks in Argentina, with near-normal totals for much of its wheat

·       ATI Research: Unshipped 18/19 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of Sep. 6 stood at 160 mbu, which is 12% lower from 182 mbu this time a year ago.  Largest declines by class are for White (-31%), HRW (-14%) and HRS (-4%)

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLV18+$0.28 @ $68.87; EBX, +$0.02 @ $78.20; EBX-QCLX-$0.25; RBV, -0.0050; NGV, -.010HOV, -.0001

·       Cash ethanol markets were again mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.2765, up $.0065; Basis to Chicago were mostly firmer—New York, +$0.1035; Gulf, +$0.0960; Dallas, +$0.0835; Tampa, +$0.2210; and LA, +$0.2535

·       Ethanol RINs saw 2017’s steady at 15 -15 ½ while 2018’s were ½ ower at 21-21 ½  

·       The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread lost $.0509 Thursday, closing at +$.7189 per gallon 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &​nbsp;                

  • Choice boxed beef values fell 75-cents on Thursday to $204.04 and are $4.71 lower compared to a week ago   
  • Dressed steer weight for week end Sep. 1: 888 lbs, dn 1 lb v. last week, 884 for the 4-week avg. and 890 last year
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 27-cents on Thu. to $70.11 and is up $3.53 vs. last week
  • CME Lean Hog Index up $1.59 on Thu. to $50.08.  October futures eased $0.125 but are still $5.595 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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