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MARKET TREND firmer: CZ, Up 1, SF, Up 2,WZ, Up 1

November 8, 2018 07:17 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—firmer: CZ, +$.0150; SF, +$.02; WZ, +$.0150; KWZ, +$.0175.  USDA Supply/Demand report 11:00 am CST 
  • MACRO:  Markets are mixed; markets see the House/Senate under separate party control having no bearing on White House/China trade issues.  Asia: Mostly  firm --Nikkei, +1.82%; Shanghai, -0.22%; Hang Seng, +0.31%.  EUROPE: Most lower--DAX, -0.18%; FTSE, +0.18%; CAC, -0.09%.  WALL STREET: Futures are lower: DOW, -67; S&P, -12.50; NAS,-43.50.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: +$0.13 @ $61.80; Dec Gold: -$5.00 @ $1,224; Dec $ Index+0.273 @ 96.080. Del’y: ETOH, 0,RR, 0; SB, 249

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., except for some rain and snow in central and southern areas when an Arctic front passes today (focused on cattle and HRW wheat), most areas will be drier to much-drier than normal over the next two weeks with little to no rain, thereby aiding remaining harvesting and planting.  That said, temperatures will be sharply colder than normal over the next 5 to 7 days, before moderating to near-normal levels for at least a few days starting next Tue.-Wed. (Nov. 13-14)

·       CZ, up $.0150 @ $3.7375; CH, up $.0150 @ $3.8525.  Light fund liquidation ahead of today’s WASDE, 1 K   

  • SF, up $.02 @ $8.8150; SH, up $.0175 @ $8.94.  Funds sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM, bot 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.14, +1, LY: $.89
  • WZ, up $.0150 @ $5.1175; WH, up $.01 @ $5.2350.  The funds were sellers of 2 K yesterday       

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg trade guess 2018 U.S. corn crop: 14.729 bbu (range 14.576-14.967) & 14.778 in Oct

  • USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg trade guess U.S. corn carryout--18/19, 1.775 bbu (range 1.566-2.105), 1.813 in Oct

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 24-35 mbu for 18/19 corn

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, heavy rainfall affects all growing areas over Friday-Monday as a strong system passes and produces heavy totals of 1.50" to 3.00", effectively breaking lingering dryness and drought on corn
  • Ethanol grind: Total of 1,068,000 barrels/day for week end Nov. 2—up 9 thou v. prior week & up 1.0% v. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess 2018 U.S. soybean crop: 4.676 bbu (range 4.637-4.706) & 4.690 in Oct.

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg trade guess U.S. soybean carryout-18/19, 0.906 bbu (range 0.820-1.010), 0.885 Oct

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-26 for 18/19 soybeans; 200-450 for 18/19 soymeal; and 8-30 for 18/19 soyoil

·       T-storm Weather: Soil moisture isn’t a significant problem in Brazil as 80% of soybean production was near or wetter than normal the last 30 days, & only 5% too dry or too wet from less than half or more than double normal rainfall

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg trade guess U.S. wheat carryout--18/19, 0.969 bbu (range 0.925-1.031), 0.956 Oct.

  • Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 18/19 all wheat

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLZ18+$0.13 @ $61.80; EBF, +$0.13 @ $72.20; EBF-QCLF,+$0.00; RBZ, +0.0031; NGZ, -.05HOZ, -.0143

·       Chicago ethanol shed $.0190 @ $1.2525; basis levels vs Chicago, mixed—New York, -.0010 @ $.1325; Gulf, -.0015 @ $.1375; Dallas, +.0015 @ $.0725; Tampa, -.0010 @ $.19750 and LA, +.0490 @ $.1825     

·       Ethanol RINs weakened: 2017’s, -3/8 @ 6 ½ -7; 2018’s, -1/8 @ 7 ¾ -8 ¼; 2019’s, -1/8 @ 12-12 ½                     

·   ​    The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread continues to narrow, losing $.0256 yesterday to +$.3714 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 ​                     

  • Choice boxed beef declined 54-cents on Wednesday to $218.22 but is still $1.29 higher compared to last week
  • In cash cattle trading on Wed., a few dressed deals were reported in the North at $180, about steady with last week
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 96-cents on Wednesday to $71.44 and is $3.07 lower vs. a week ago  
  • CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.28 Wed. to $63.72.  December futures firmed $1.425 but are $8.195 below the index 

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm- Weather

 



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