HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Firmer:  CZ, +$.0025; SX, +$.0675; WZU, +$.0375; KWZ, +$.04
• MACRO:  World equity markets are mostly higher this morning, ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve Bank rate decision.  Other news is scarce as trade tensions remain.  ASIA: Positive: Nikkei, +0.39%;Shanghai, +0.92%; Hang Seng, +1.15%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher:  DAX,-0.15%; FTSE, +0.05%; CAC, +0.24%.  WALL STREET: Futures are higher:DOW, +46; S&P, +6.50; NAS, +25.75.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: -$0.13 @ $72.15; Dec Gold: -$2.40 @ $1,203; Dec $ Index, +0.079 @ 93.790 

·        T-storm Weather: Except for a few showers in the Corn Belt, most of the central U.S. will be dry over Wed.-Sat.  Organized rainfall unfolds Sun.-Mon. across the northern half of the Corn Belt as the central U.S. becomes divided by unseasonable coolness to the north and mildness to the south.  Periods of rain result in varying areas at varying times over the 7 to 10 days that follow, resulting in a wet start to October with generalized rainfall of 1.25” to 2.50” across the Corn Belt over Oct. 1-10 

·       CZ, up $.0025 @ $3.64; CH, unch @ $3.7575.  Fund buying totaled 3 K Tuesday              

• SX, up $.0675 @ $8.5250; SF, up $.0650 @ $8.6625.  Funds Bot 3 K SB, 2 K SBM, 2 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.40, 0, LY: $.81
• WZ, up $.0375 @ $5.2450; WH, up $.0350 @ $5.43.  Managed Money sold an estimated 5 K yesterday          

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA Grain Stocks report on Sep. 28: Avg. trade est. for U.S. Sept. 1 corn stocks, 2.010 bbu (range 1.953-2.099)

·       T-storm Weather: Some rains affect the central U.S. into the weekend, but widespread and heavy totals that would markedly slow or stop corn harvesting do not occur

• ATI Research: Bias on U.S. corn exports over the next four weeks remains 40-50 mbu per week vs. 26.6 mbu last year

·       Consultant: Full-season corn in Brazil is 24% planted compared to 18% last year and 18% for the 5-year average

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA Grain Stocks report on Sept. 28: Avg. trade est. for U.S. Sept. 1 soybean stocks, 0.398 bbu (range 0.378-0.430)
• ATI Research: Bias on U.S. soybean exports the next four weeks remains 25-30 mbu per week vs. 46.0 mbu last year

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean planting off to fast start.  Record pace in Parana (#2 producing state) of 11.2% v. 1.9% avg.

·       USDA Grain Stocks report on Sep. 28: Avg. trade est. for U.S. Sept. 1 wheat stocks, 2.344 bbu (range 2.155-2.440)

• USDA Small Grains Summary report Sep. 28: Avg. est U.S. all wheat crop, 1.873 bbu (range 1.848-1.907); 1.877 in Aug.

·       T-storm Weather: Rain affects Australia wheat next 7-10 days; but forecast is drier east—only 0.20”-0.40” is expected

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLX18, -$0.13 @ $72.15; EBX, -$0.11 @ $81.76; EBX-QCLX,+$0.03; RBX, -0.0088; NGX, -.022; HOX, -.00317

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -1.3 (+2.9); Gasoline, +0.8 (+0.9); Distillates, +0.7 (-0.9).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.027 mbpd (range: 1.012-1.040).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.700 mb (range 22.606-22.846)

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.0130 to $1.2650; basis levels versus Chicago were mixed—New York @+$0.1075, up $.0020; Gulf @ +$0.0925, -$.0030; Dallas, +$0.0250, -$.0130; Tampa, +$0.1550, -$.0080 and LA, +$0.2650, -$.0130

·       Ethanol RINs fell further:  2017’s @ 7 -9, down 1; 2018’s, 11 to 13 ½, down 2 ¼         

·       The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread eased $.0020 to +$.80270 per gallon 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            ​;          

• Choice boxed beef values eased 43-cents on Tuesday to $205.73 but are still 44-cents higher vs. a week ago
• ATI Research: USDA Cold Storage report pegs end of Aug. beef inventory +5.6% v. last year & 14.4% above 5-year avg.
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 79-cents on Tue. to $79.49 and is up $3.27 vs. last week 
• CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.20 on Tue. at $62.05.  October futures increased $1.425 & are $0.375 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather