HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Firmer: CN, +$.02; SN, +$.0050; WN, +$.0250; KWN, +$.0150.
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MACRO: Trade worries persist; April retail sales numbers out this morning & will garned considerable interest. Asia—Mostly Lower: Nikkei, -0.21%; Shanghai, +0.58%; Hang Seng, -1.23%. EUROPE: Mostly Higher: DAX, -0.15%; FTSE, +0.21%;CAC, +0.07%. WALL STREET: Futures are weaker: DOW, -44; S&P, -3.75; NAS,-11.75. EXTERNALS: June crude: +$0.40 @ $71.36; Aug Gold: -$9.40 @ $1,315; $ Index: +.183 @ 91.745
· T-storm Weather: Widespread coverage of above-normal rainfall affects most of the central U.S. over the next two weeks. Thunderstorms affect the southeast half to two-thirds of the central U.S. today, then linger through midweek. Thereafter, two large systems pass and bring rain to a wide area – initially affecting northwestern and southeastern areas, then in-between sometime this weekend. Additional rainfall likely follows next week as waves of energy continue to pass within a mild pattern
· CN, up $.02 @ $3.9850; CU, up $.0250 @ $4.0725. The funds opened the week by selling 5 K
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SN, up $.0050 @ $10.125; SQ, up $.0050 @ $10.2150. Funds: Bot 6 SB, 0 SBM & even SBO. Board crush: $1.79, +5; LY: $.85
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WN, up $.0250 @ $4.9375; WU, up $.0250 @ $5.1050. The funds were again sellers of 6 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
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USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of May 13 at 62% vs. 68% last year and the 5-year average of 63%
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T-storm Weather: In Brazil, 0.75"-1.50" of rain occurs Tue.-Fri. within the southern ~40% of the second-crop (safrinha) corn belt, while 0.25"-0.75" affects another ~40%, leaving the northeast ~20% dry
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop is unchanged this week at 84.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the potential of the safrinha (double crop) corn
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ATI Research: The export model forecast for the next four weeks puts U.S. corn exports at 58.6 mbu per week. Our bias has moved up from 50-60 mbu per week to 55-65 per week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of May 13 at 35% vs. 29% last year and the 5-year average of 26%
· Consultant: Brazil soybean crop estimate is unchanged at 116.0 MMT; neutral to slightly higher bias going forward
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T-storm Weather: Soil moisture for U.S. HRW wheat increases this week as several thunderstorm clusters produce 0.75” to 1.50” of rain across the southeast half of the central/southern Plains
· ATI Research: U.S. Good/Excellent +2% to 36% with the model estimating the 2018 winter wheat crop @ 1.163 bbu
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USDA estimates U.S. spring wheat planting progress as of May 13 at 58% vs. 75% last year and the 5-year avg. of 67%
ENERGY
· Higher: CLM18, +$.40@$71.36; EBN, +$.67@$78.90; EBN-QCLN, +$0.27; RBM,+.0084; NGM, -.005; HOM, +.0151
· On Monday, cash ethanol markets were firmer: Chicago was quoted at $1.45625, up $0.01625; Basis to Chicago—New York, +12 ¼; Gulf, +9 ½; Dallas, +3 ¾; Tampa, +16 ¾; and LA, +23 ½
· On Monday, ethanol RINs increased: 2017’s gained ½ to 29-31; and 2018’s added 1 ½ to 33 ½-36
· The June RBOB/June ethanol spread narrowed $.0076 Monday to +$.72200/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
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Choice boxed beef values firmed $1.15 on Monday to $232.12, and are up $2.98 vs. a week ago
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $3.16 v. last week at $121.65/cwt, and down $15.63 v. last year
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 38-cents on Monday to $72.835, and is up $1.73 vs. last week
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Current nearby board hog crush value is $42.19/cwt vs. last week’s $39.78, last month’s $44.48 & last year’s $46.84
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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