HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Firmer: CN, +$.0150; SN, +$.0375; WN, +$.0350; KWK, +$.05.  USDA supply/demand report at 11:00 am CDT
• MACRO:  Global markets are looking for news, oil continues higher.  Asia—Higher: Nikkei, +0.39%; Shanghai, +0.51%; Hang Seng, +0.89%.  EUROPE: Mostly lower: DAX, +0.523%; FTSE,-0.230%; CAC, -0.05%.  WALL STREET: Futures—slightly higher: DOW, +9; S&P, +3.00; NAS,+9.75.  EXTERNALS: June crude: +$0.55@ $71.69; Aug Gold: +$2.20 @ $1,322; $ Index: -.099 @ 91.885.  Dely: SBM, 0; SBO, 0; RR, 5; C, 112; ETOH, 0 HRW, 0; O, 0; SB, 57

·        T-storm Weather: The central U.S. will be sharply divided by coolness across the northern third (highs in the 50s-60s) & mildness across the southern third (highs in the 80s-90s) through Sunday.  Several waves of energy flow along the sharp north-south gradient, causing scattered thunderstorms to occasionally affect NE, SD, & the northern half to two-thirds of the Corn Belt, while areas to the immediate north & south stay fairly dry; 0.75” to 1.50” in the Plains contrasts with 1.00” to 2.00” in the Corn Belt

·        CN, up $.0150 @ $4.0425; CU, up $.01 @ $4.12.  The funds liquidated 4 K at mid-week                    

• SN, up $.0375 @ $10.1950; SQ, up $.0350 @ $10.2275. Funds: sold 4 SB, 2 SBM, Bot 3 SBO.Board crush:  $1.74, +8; LY: $.84
• WN, up $.0350 @ $5.14; WU, up $.0350 @ $5.3075.  The funds were sellers of 6 K yesterday                        

 

CORN/SORGHUM

· ​       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 28-39 for 17/18 corn

·        USDA WASDE report 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess 17/18 U.S. corn carryout, 2.176 bbu; avg. guess 18/19, 1.631 bbu

• USDA WASDE report 11:00 am CDT: Avg. guess for 2018 U.S. corn production is 14.091 bbu (range 13.921-14.360)
• USDA WASDE report: Avg. guess 17/18 Brazil corn crop is 88.6 MMT (range 83.9-92.0); Argentina, 32.2 (31.0-33.0)
• T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms primarily hold until Tue.-Wed. (May 15-16) forward for the southern ~40% of second-crop (safrinha) corn in Brazil, and for around 10 more days for the northern 60% (if thunderstorms return)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 17/18 soybeans; soymeal, 100-400 K MT; soyoil, 15-60 

·        USDA WASDE report 11:00 am CDT: Avg. guess 17/18 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.546 bbu; avg. guess 18/19, 0.533 bbu

• USDA WASDE report: Avg. guess for 2018 U.S. soybean production is 4.324 bbu (range 4.110-4.850)
• USDA WASDE: Avg. guess 17/18 Brazil soybean crop is 116.3 MMT (range 114.9-119.0); Argentina, 38.4 (36.0-40.0)

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 0-13 mbu for 17/18 all wheat and 7-13 mbu for 18/19

·        USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess 17/18 U.S. wheat carryout, 1.068 bbu; avg. guess 18/19, 0.932 bbu

• USDA WASDE report: Avg. guess for 2018 U.S. winter wheat production is 1.176 bbu (range 1.062-1.304)

ENERGY

·        Higher: CLM18, +$.55@$71.69; EBN, +$.37@$77.57; EBN-QCLN, -$0.18; RBM, +.0117; NGM,-.020; HOM, +.0035

·        On Wednesday, cash ethanol markets were weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.45, down $0.0075; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11 ½; Gulf, +8 ½; Dallas, +5; Tampa, +17 ½; and LA, +24

·        On Wednesday, ethanol RINs rebounded slightly: 2017’s up 3/8 to 25 ¾-27; and 2018’s firmed 1 ½ to 30-31

·        The June RBOB/June ethanol spread picked up $.0629 yesterday to close at +$.70030/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            ​                         ​               

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• Choice boxed beef values firmed 3-cents on Wednesday to $230.96, and are $3.66 higher compared to last week
• Since April 19, choice boxed beef has risen $19.62 (9.3%) and remains at the highest level since June 27, 2017
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 58-cents on Wed. to $71.21, and is $1.44 higher vs. a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index increased $0.22 on Wed. to $63.55.  May futures fell $0.275 but are still $2.375 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather