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MARKET TREND Firmer CK, Up 1, SK, Up 2, WK, Up 3

March 13, 2018 07:09 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Firmer:  CK, +$.0050; SK, +$.0325; WK, +$.0325; KWK, +$.05

·       MACRO: Today’s market focus will be the CPI release to help gauge if the Fed will accelerate the pace of rate hikes.  Asia: Mostly higher:  Nikkei, +0.66%; Shanghai, -0.46%;Hang Seng, +0.02%.  EUROPE: Firmer: DAX, +0.18%; FTSE, +0.02%; CAC, +0.43%.  WALL STREET:  Futures are positive—DOW, +61; S&P, +5.75; NAS, +5.75.  EXTERNALS: $ Index:+0.1785 @ 90.045; Apr Gold-$2.20 @ $1,319; Apr crude: +$.17 @ $61.53.  Deliveries:  SBM, 4; SBO, 4; RR, 0; C, 441; ETOH, 0; HRW, 3; SRW, 9; SB, 0

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, thunderstorms affect northern areas Wed.-Thu.  Dry weather continues elsewhere until a round of thunderstorms Sat.-Sun., especially in eastern areas and less-so western areas.  At least several days of drying follow before another chance for rain develops in 10 to 14 days.  The end result is for near- or below-normal rainfall to occur over the next two weeks, except for above-normal totals in far-eastern or northeastern growing areas; driest with southwestward extent

·       CK, up $.0050 @ $3.9125; CN, up $.0075 @ $3.9925.  The funds opened the week buying 2 K       

  • SK, up $.0375 @ $10.4475; SN, up $.04 @ $10.55. Funds: bot 2K SB, 1K SBO, sold 4K SBM. Board crush:  $1.23, -7; LY: $.75
  • WK, up $.0325 @ $4.94; WN, up $.0375 @ $5.1125.  The funds were also buyers of 2 K on Monday           

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, temperatures across corn producing areas fluctuate within a wide range through late-month, averaging close to normal as any heat offsets coolness, and coolness offsets heat

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop estimate is lowered 1.0 MMT to 34.0 MMT with a lower bias going forward.  The later-planted corn is 84% pollinated and 5% filling grain with soil moisture rated 93% short to very short

  • ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 2.095 bbu vs. USDA at 2.127 bbu
  • USDA reported Monday that U.S. 17/18 corn exports through March 8 totaled 800 mbu vs. 1139 mbu last year (-30%)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, scattered thunderstorms focus on northern and far-southern soybean areas over the next two weeks.  Above-normal totals in excess of 3.00” result in northern Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is lowered 2.0 MMT to 43.0 with a lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 561 mbu vs. USDA at 555 mbu

·       ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 221 mbu vs. USDA at 228 mbu

  • T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a stormy period resumes Sat. & continues for 7- 10 days.  The potential exception remains the SW Plains, including the 51% of HRW wheat production that was drier than normal over the last 90 days

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLJ18+$.17 @ $61.53; EBK, +$.12 @ $65.07; EBK-QCLK-$0.01RBJ-.0021;NGJ, +.026HOJ,+.0082

·       On Monday, cash ethanol markets were steady to higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.4775, up $0.01; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11 ¼; Gulf, +11 ¾; Dallas, +5 ¼; Tampa, +17 ¼; and LA, +19 ¼

·       On Monday, ethanol RINs were mixed: 2016’s up 1 ½ to 36-38; 2017’s down 2 at 37 ½-39 ½; & 2018’s off 2 at 39-40

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread lost $.0123 on Monday, closing at+$.3820/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            &​nbsp;                        <​/wbr>

  • Choice boxed beef values declined 24-cents on Monday to $223.90, but are still up 67-cents compared to last week
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $0.03 v. last week at $126.79/cwt, and is up $1.56 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.61 on Monday to $74.42, but is still $4.22 lower vs. a week ago

  • Current nearby board hog crush value is $44.29/cwt vs. last week’s $45.83, last month’s $47.81 & last year’s $45.75

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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