HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Firmer:  CH, +$.0150; SF, +$.0675; WH, +$.0375; KWH, +$.0425. 
• MACRO:  Trump talk:  trade discussions on-going; no increase in U.S. tariffs until there is more clarity regarding agreement, may intervene in Huawei case.  Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +2.15%; Shanghai, +0.31%; Hang Seng, +1.61%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.88%; FTSE, +1.04%; CAC, +1.51%.  WALL STREET: Futures are higher: DOW, +144; S&P, +18.50;NAS, +63.00.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude: +$0.93 @ $52.58; Dec Gold: +$3.40 @ $1,245; Dec $ Index, -.013 @ 97.345. Dely: SBO, 40; C, 24; HRW, 19; SRW, 9

·       T-storm Weather: In northern Brazil, a few thunderstorms occur through today, followed by a week of mainly dry weather, then a stormier period starting in 10 to 14 days.  In southern Brazil, dry and hot weather continue into at least Saturday, then begin to break as isolated thunderstorms initially form.  In Argentina, heavy thunderstorms affect key central areas today, then again Thu.-Fri., and then again once or twice within Sat.-Wed. (Dec. 15-19), producing heavy rainfall totals of 2.00" to 4.00

·       CH, up $.0150 @ $3.8625; CK, up $.0150 @ $3.9375.  On a quiet report day, the funds were buyers of 1 K          

• SF, up $.0675 @ $9.2175; SH, up $.0650 @ $9.3475.  Funds: Bot 3 K SB, 1 SBM & 1 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.88, -1; LY: $1.07 
• WH, up $.0375 @ $5.2475; WK, up $.0325 @ $5.3175.   Fund sales on Tuesday: 5 K                 

CORN/SORGHUM

• December 2019 corn futures on Tuesday closed at $4.04—the highest settlement price for the contract since Nov. 8
• T-storm Weather: In southern Brazil, a stormy period develops for full-season corn from Dec. 17-18 forward.  The end result is for generalized rainfall of 1.00”-3.00”  to unfold over the next 10 days, though most rain is at least 5 days out 

·       Consultant: Brazil corn production estimate for 2018/19 is unchanged this week at 96.0 MMT vs. 81.0 MMT last year

·       Ethanol margins: -$0.10 per gallon—dn vs. -$0.03 last week and well below +$0.23 in 2017.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• November 2019 soybean futures on Tue. closed at $9.61 ¾—highest settlement price for the contract since June 12
• T-storm Weather: In southern Brazil, a stormy period develops for soybeans from Dec. 17-18 forward.  The end result is for generalized rainfall of 1.00”-3.00”  to unfold over the next 10 days, though most rain is at least 5 days out 

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean production est. for 2018/19 is unchanged this week at 122.0 MMT vs. 119.5 MMT last year

• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports is 13-17 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, lesser rainfall in the south the next 7-10 days limits duration of wheat harvest delays

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLF19, +$0.93 @ $52.58; EBG, +$1.11 @ $61.31; EBG-QCLG, +$0.17; RBF, +.0280; NGF, -.082; HOF, +.0253

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -3.0 (-10.2); Gasoline, +2.5 (-2.5); Distillates, +1.8 (+0.7).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.057 mbpd (range: 1.050-1.068).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.223 mb (range 23.000-23.500)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0125 higher at $1.1850; basis values were generally lower: New York, -$.0025 @ $.1750; Gulf, unch @ $.14250; Dallas, -$.0025 @ $.1150; Tampa, -$.0025 @ $.24; and LA, +$.0275 @ $.1900    

·       Ethanol RINs firmed: 2017’s, +1 ¾ @ 17 ½-18 ½; 2018’s, +1 ¾ @ 19 -20; 2019’s, +1 5/8’s @ 21-23 ¾                           

·      ​ The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread gained $.0079 yesterday, widening to +$.2058/gal 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      ​;                

• ​ Choice boxed beef declined 96-cents on Tuesday to $214.46 but is still 60-cents higher compared to last week 
• December live cattle futures on Tue. closed at $118.375—the highest settlement price for the contract since Oct. 26
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout increased 17-cents on Tuesday to $71.35 and is $1.57 higher vs. a week ago  
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.14 on Tuesday to $55.98.  December futures eased $0.275 and are $1.53 below the index

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN. T-storm Weather