HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Firmer: CH: up $.0175; SF: up $.0350; WH: up $.0125; KWH: up $.020.

·       MACRO.  Good trade data from China; a break-through in the Brexit discussions; Happy Friday--jobs report,195 K consensus.  ASIA—Higher: Nikkei, +1.39%; Shanghai,+0.55%; Hang Seng, +1.19%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +1.30%; FTSE, +0.26%; CAC, +0.45%. WALL STREET—Futures are higher—DOW, +43; S&P, +5.25; NAS, +31.25.  EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.231 @ 94.000; Gold: -$5.30 @ $1,244; Jan crude: +$0.37 @ $57.06/bl.  Del’y: SBM, 139; SBO, 189; C, 464; ETOH, 0; HRW, 5; SRW, 25

• T-storm Weather: Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay will be drier to much-drier than normal over the next 7 to 10 days. That said, isolated thunderstorms dot Argentina at times (especially today-Saturday).  Heat accompanies dryness in most of Argentina and Paraguay, as well.  Otherwise, northern areas of Brazil stay or turn wet over the next 10 to 14 days, especially the key states of Bahia, Goias, Mato Grosso, and Minas Gerais
• CH, up$.0175 @ $3.5325; CK, up $.0150 @ $3.6150.  The funds sold an estimated 2 K yesterday       
• SF, up $.0350 @ $9.9550; SH, up $0375 @ $10.08.  Funds: sold 6 SB, 3 SBM, 0 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.12, -$.03; LY, $.73 
• WH, up $.0125 @ $4.2275; WK, up $.0150 @ $4.3650.  Fund selling pegged at 3 KThursday           

 

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA WASDE report Dec. 12: Avg. trade est U.S. corn carryout--17/18, 2.478 bbu (range 2.394-2.517) & 2.487 in Nov.

·       WASDE: Avg. trade est Brazil corn--17/18, 93.3 MMT v. 95.0 in Nov.; Argentina corn--17/18, 41.8 MMT vs. 42.0 in Nov

·       Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. corn as of Nov. 30 were 583 mbu, which is down 20% from 728 mbu last year

• T-storm Weather: While widespread rain is needed for corn in Argentina, soil moisture is near-equally mixed between dry, normal and wet for full-season corn in Brazil
• Consultant: Dryness is slowing second phase of Argentina corn planting, which may not conclude until later in January 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA WASDE Dec. 12: Avg. trade est U.S. soybean carryout--17/18, 0.438 bbu (range 0.425-0.486) & 0.425 in Nov.

·       WASDE: Avg. trade est Brazil soybean--17/18, 108.2 MMT v. 108.0 in Nov.; Argentina--17/18, 56.5 MMT v. 57.0 in Nov

• Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Nov. 30 were 489 mbu—down 22% from 631 mbu last year
• T-storm Weather: A stormier period develops late next week and weekend in Argentina, followed by thunderstorms in southern Brazil and Paraguay; 0.50" to 1.50" of rain is most probable, which would not be enough to offset drying

·       USDA WASDE Dec. 12: Avg. trade guess U.S. wheat carryout--17/18, 0.938 bbu (range 0.925-0.960) & 0.935 Nov.

·       Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of Nov. 30 were 200 mbu—down 14% from 232 mbu last year 

ENERGY

·       Firmer: CLF18, +$0.37 @ $57.06; EBG +$0.30 @ $62.50; EBG-QCLF, -$0.06; RBF,+.0044; NGF, +.028; HOF, +.0136

·       On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were mostly lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.31255, down $0.00125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +7 ½; Gulf, +7 ¾; Dallas, +2 ¾; Tampa, +15 ¾; and LA, +18 ¾

·       On Thu., ethanol RINs eased: 2016’s off 1 ¼ at 76 ½-80; 2017’s fell 12 ¼ to 77-80 ½; & 2018’s down 1 ¼ to 77-80 ½

·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread widened $.0411 to +$.38500/gallon in yesteday’s trading  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              ​                       

• Choice boxed beef values declined $1.32 on Thursday to $205.08, but are still 44-cents higher vs. last week
• Dressed steer weight for week end Nov. 25: 904 lbs, up 2 lbs v. last week, 901.75 for 4-week avg. and 916 last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 79-cents on Thu. to $82.88, & is 29-cents higher vs. last week 

• CME Lean Hog Index was $0.45 higher on Thu. at $65.30.  December futures fell $0.25 & are $1.725 below the index  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather