HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Firmer: CH, +$.0125; SH, +$.0250; WH, +$.0550; KWH, +$.0550

·       MACRO:  Overseas markets are mostly higher; wires say investors remain cautious; U.S. futures would suggest “nervous”.  ASIA—Slightly firmer:  Nikkei, +0.16%; Shanghai,closed; Hang Seng, closed.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.49%; FTSE, +0.65%; CAC, +0.31%. WALL STREET Futures—Buckle up--Lower —DOW, -215;  S&P, -23.50; NAS, -54.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.244 @ 89.695; Feb Gold: +$0.90 @ $1,327; Mar crude: -$.17 @ $63.22

• T-storm Weather: Mainly dry and hot weather break over Fri.-Sun. in Argentina; 0.75" to 1.50" of rain results in central and northern areas, but less-so to the south.  A dry and seasonable period likely follows as a lack of humidity keeps the air stable, preventing any waves of energy from organizing thunderstorms.  In Brazil, some rain returns to northern areas over Thu.-Sat., followed by organized rains in southern areas next week.  The result is above-normal totals next week in the south
• CH, up $.0125 @ $3.6475; CK, up $.0075 @ $3.72.  Considerable fund buying  on Tuesday,estimated at 15 K                     
• SH, up $.0250 @ $9.8875; SK, up $.0225 @ $10.00.  Funds bought 8 SB, 6 SBM, 6 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.08, +$.01; LY: $.73
• WH, up $.0575 @ $4.52; WK, up $.0575 @ $4.6475.   Fund buying was pegged at 5 K yesterday 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: Some hints suggest that some thunderstorms might return to Argentina corn producing areas around one week after this weekend’s thunderstorms exit (Feb. 18-22), which will be the next period to monitor

• Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is unch at 88.0 MMT.  Current wet conditions in Mato Grosso will slow down soybean harvest and subsequently safrinha (double crop) corn planting.  Safrinha corn planting will continue until early March

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is in the 37-42 mbu per week range compared to 40.5 mbu last year

• Ethanol margins: $0.30 per gallon—up vs. $0.21 last week and above $0.24 for 2017.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: Widespread rain of 2.00”-4.00” affects most Brazil soybean areas over the next two weeks

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is steady at 51.0 MMT, with greater downside yield risk than upside potential

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is the 15-20 mbu per week range compared to 18.6 mbu last year

• T-storm Weather: At some point from this weekend forward, at least light rain or snow should affect drought-stricken U.S. HRW wheat; SRW wheat turns sharply wetter as agricultural drought ends for much of the crop the next 2 weeks

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLH18, -$.17 @ $63.22; EBJ, -$.08 @ $66.78; EBJ-QCLJ, +$.10; RBH, +.0076;NGH, +.009; HOH, -.0038

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.5 (-1.1); Gasoline, +0.7 (-0.2); Distillates, -1.1 (+4.6).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.049 mil barrels/day (range 1.040-1.065).  Avg. est. for ethanol stocks is 23.2 mil barrels (range 22.9-23.4)

·       On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets remained mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.41125, down $0.0125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11 ¼; Gulf, +9; Dallas, +7 ¼; Tampa, +18 ¼; and LA, +19 ¾

·       On Tuesday, ethanol RINs fell: 2016’s down 1 ¼ at 60 ½-62; 2017’s off 1 ¼ to 61 ¼-63; & 2018’s eased 1 ½ to 62-63 ½

·       The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread lost $.0004 yesterday to close at +$.3818/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 ​                    

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• Choice boxed beef values declined $1.00 on Tuesday to $208.43, and are $1.26 lower compared to last week  
• Cash cattle trading remained light on Tuesday in the South, with asking prices pegged at $130

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.86 on Tuesday to $77.14, and is down $4.20 vs. a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.36 on Tue. to $74.84.  February futures eased $1.075, & are $0.09 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather