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MARKET TREND Firm CK, Up 1, SK, Up 3, WK, Up 4

April 17, 2018 07:17 AM

Shonkwiler, Larry

Attachments5:25 AM (1 hour ago)
 
to MorningJim
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Firm: CK, +$.0150; SK, +$.0350; WK, +$.0375; KWK, +$.0525
  • MACRO: Q1 China growth @ 6.8%, beats expectations, earnings season in the U.S., good early results—IBM, Goldman Sachs, Netflix.  Asia: Mostly lower: Nikkei, +0.06%; Shanghai, -1.39%; Hang Seng, -0.83%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.88%; FTSE,-0.32%; CAC, +0.49%.  WALL STREET: Futures look pretty positive: DOW, +126; S&P, +11.50; NAS, +28.25.  EXTERNALS: Apr Gold-$4.70 @ $1,343; May crude: +$0.06 @ $66.28

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a compact system produces a snowstorm Tuesday-Wednesday in / near the Iowa-Minnesota border, while light showers affect other areas within the northern U.S.  A wet system follows within Friday-Sunday across the central / southern Plains and Delta, alleviating drought on HRW wheat.  Temperatures remain unusually cold this week as Arctic air lingers and is kept cold by snowpack

·       CK, up $.0150 @ $3.84; CN, up $.0175 @ $3.9275. The funds sold 10 K to begin the week on ideas of improving weather              

  • SK, up $.0350 @ $10.4550; SN, up $.0325 @ $10.5650. Funds: sold 8 SB (China), 6 SBM, 4 SBO. Board crush:  $1.32, -2; LY: $.86
  • WK, up $.0375 @ $4.66; WN, up $.03 @ $4.82.  Rain expected for later in the week contributed to 8 K in sales                       

CORN/SORGHUM

  • ​ USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of April 15 at 3% vs. 6% last year and the 5-year average of 5%
  • T-storm Weather: Across U.S. corn, additional systems follow next week, producing pockets of rain in varying areas, but the exact setup will take time to determine and fully dry weather is not expected.  Temps moderate next week

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop production estimate is increased 1.0 MMT this week to 87.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.  The safrinha (double crop) corn in central Brazil looks very good

  • ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn export forecast model increased from 50.3 mbu per week last week to 53.0; our bias remains at 50-60.  The model for near-term sorghum exports increased from 7.7 to 8.2 per week; our bias is 2-4

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. is unch at 115.0 MMT; neutral to slightly higher bias.  Nationwide harvest at 85% 

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a stormy period resumes Thu.-Fri. and then continues for at least one week as 1.75”-3.50” affects a wide area over next 10 to 14 days, occasionally slowing soybean harvesting

  • ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean export forecast declined from 27.7 to 25.5 mbu per week; our bias is 10-20

·       ATI Research: Near-term U.S. wheat export forecast is 13-18 mbu/week v. 23.6 last year & latest 4-week avg. of 15.5

·       ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat Good/Excellent, +1% to 31%; model pegs ‘18 crop @ 1.102 bbu, -3 mbu v. last week

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLK18+$0.06 @ $66.28; EBN, -$0.15 @ $70.66; EBN-QCLN-$0.23RBK,-.0017NGK, -.022HOK, -.0012

·       On Monday, cash ethanol markets were steady to weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.4675, down $0.0125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +10 ¼; Gulf, +8 ½; Dallas, +6 ¾; Tampa, +18 ¾; and LA, +24 ¼

·       On Monday, ethanol RINs were steady to higher: 2017’s unchanged at 29-32; but 2018’s up ¼ at 35-37

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread gave up $.0105 on Monday, closing at+$.56690/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            &nbs​p;                        

  • Choice boxed beef values were 82-cents lower on Monday at $211.79, and are down $3.25 vs. a week ago
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $2.76 v. last week at $119.49/cwt, but is down $8.52 v. last year
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $2.06 on Mon. to $67.58, & is $1.46 higher compared to last week
  • Current nearby board hog crush value is $45.21/cwt vs. last week’s $40.84, last month’s $46.38 & last year’s $42.41

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 



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