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Market Trend Corn, Up 2-3; Soybeans, Up 6-7; Wheat, 1 Higher

December 9, 2013 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, Up 2-3; Soybeans, Up 6-7; Wheat,  ½ to 1 Higher 

·         Asian stocks respond favorably to U.S. jobs news—Nikkei up 2.3%; the Hang Seng edges .2% higher and Shanghai, up 1+%.  In Europe, the DAX is up slightly but both the FTSE and CAC-40 are ¼ to ½% lower.  U.S. stock futures are mixed:  the S&P and Nasdaq are up ½ and 4 ¾, respectively; the Dow is 4 lower as the market continues to wrestle with a slow/steady economic recovery against prospects for cutting back on the Fed’s stimulus efforts.  Outside markets find gold off $1.70; crude is little changed at $97.67/barrel and the $ Index is off .080 at 80.325

·         T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms are forecast every few days this week across northern Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil; seasonably-heavy amounts of 1.25”-2.50” occur through the period.  Therefore, adequate soil moisture levels are expected to continue for corn and soybean development across these areas.  Key central/southern grain and oilseed areas of Argentina stay mostly dry through 7-10 days, while temperatures fluctuate within a seasonable range.  Therefore, conditions for corn/soybean planting and wheat harvesting improve

·         Dec Corn Up $.0275 at $4.2675 Mar Corn Up $.0225 at $4.3650.  The funds bought 1 K to close out the week  

·         Jan SB Up $.0675 at $13.3225; Mar SB Up $.0650 at $13.17.  Funds: sold 1 K SB; were even on both SB and SBM

·         Dec Wheat NA; Mar Up $.01 at $6.52.  Fund activity was  even on Friday   

CORN/SORGHUM

·         Buenos Aires Grains Exchange pegs corn planting in Argentina at 47% as of Dec. 5--approximately 25% below the 5-year average.  The first week of December in Argentina is roughly equivalent to the first week of June in the U.S.

·         T-storm Weather: Perfect planting weather is likely needed through the rest of the month in Argentina for all remaining corn to be seeded; however, perfect planting weather is very unlikely.

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 27.7 needed; 35.7 last week.  Milo—3.8 needed; 0.3 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures positions increase 4,438 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Buenos Aires Grains Exchange: Soybean planting in Argentina at 58% as of Dec. 5, which is near the 5-year avg. of 61%

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 20.8 needed; 52.6 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures positions increase 11,877 contracts

·         Buenos Aires Grains Exchange: Wheat harvest is 30% complete in Argentina, which is near the 5-year avg. of 28%

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 17.0 needed; 18.1 last week

·         Commitment of Traders: CBT Non-Commercial long wheat futures positions decrease 292 contracts

·         T-storm Weather: Total of 23% of U.S. HRW wheat was cold enough for winterkill on Saturday morning

ENERGY

·         Energy markets—mixed, QCLF14,$0.00 at $97.65; QRBF, -$0.0068; QNGF, +$.066 and QHOF, -$.0074

·         A  mixed trend in cash ethanol markets was seen again on Friday: Chicago up 3 ½; Gulf down ½; Dallas and Tampa both gained ½; rally in New York continued, up 17 ½; while LA was ½ higher at $2.56 ½ per gallon

·         Slight gains in RINs: 2012’s up ½ to 34-38; 2013’s were also ½ higher to 35-39; & 2014’s were ¼ firmer at 35 ½-40

·         The January RBOB/January ethanol spread narrowed in $.0938 cents on Friday to settle at $.7339 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;            

·     &nb​sp;   Choice boxed beef values fell 94-cents Friday and have lost $1.83 over the last two trading days

·         Plains cash cattle traded last week at mostly $132, steady with the week before

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 99-cents Friday and has gained $1.15 over the last two trading days

·         The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 60-cents Friday to $78.29

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

This data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be used for specific trading strategies without consulting Advance Trading, Inc. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Past results are no indication of future performance. All information is based upon data that is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Please see http://www.advance-trading.com/index.php/disclaimer for full disclaimer

 

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