HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, Up 10; Soybeans, 12 to 15 Higher; Wheat, 7-9 Higher   

·         After climbing to the highest value since the first week of August, stocks are slightly weaker this morning ahead of the two-day U.S. Federal policy meeting which begin today.  Consensus seems to be that the Fed will start scaling back its monetary stimulus even though economic growth remains soft.  Ideas are it will trim its monthly asset purchase by about $10 billion to from $85 billion.  Dow futures are down 9, S&P is off 2 and the Nasdaq is 2.25 weaker.  Asian markets were muted with Japan’s Nikkei index down 0.7% while Hong Kong’ Hang Seng dropped 0.3%.  In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.3% while Germany’s DAX fell 0.2%.  The U.S. dollar index is down 0.143 on the December contract to 81.305; outside markets show gold up $2.30 per oz, while energy complex is mixed    

·         T-storm Weather forecast: Temps fluctuate over the next five days.  Scattered t-storms initially form in / near Iowa and Missouri Tues-Wed as a warm front moves northeast, followed by scattered t-storms across the southeast one-half to two-thirds of the Corn Belt Thursday-Friday as a cool front moves southeast; 0.75”- 1.50” amounts expected (second map).  At least several days of dry weather follow with the best chance for rain next week in the northern Plains or northwest Corn Belt around Tuesday.  That being said, above-average maximums in the 70s-80s likely dominate next week with a wet period not currently expected.

·         Dec Corn Up $.1025 at $4.6675; Mar Corn Up $.10 at $4.79

·         Nov Soybeans Up$.1575 at $13.64; Jan SB Up $.1475 at $13.63

·         Dec Wheat, Up $.0875 at $6.50; Mar Wheat Up $.0875 at $6.6075

CORN/SORGHUM

·         ATI Research: Good/Excellent (G/E) corn ratings declined 1 point to 53% (vs. 24% last year), but national yield up 0.3 bpa to 156.7 reflecting better-than-expected field results.  Updated crop size estimate is 13.730Bbu

·         ATI Research: 12/13 corn carryout dn 63 million to 661mbu but 13/14 ending stocks up 46 million to 1.860Bbu

·         Corn progress: Dent, 81% vs. 97% LY; 86% avg., mature, 22%; 73% LY; 41% avg., harvest, 4%; 24% LY; 10% avg.

·         ATI Research: Major upward revisions in 13/14 supply for corn export competitors (Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Ukraine) in WASDE report imply a reduction in U.S. Sept-Nov exports.  Now looking for approx. 260mbu (20/week) 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: G/E soybean conditions declined 2 points to 50% (vs. 33% last year), national yield down 0.2 bpa to 41.3.  Updated crop size estimate is 3.126Bbu.  Soybean progress: Dropping leaves, 26%, 54% LY, 35% avg.

·         ATI Research: 12/13 soybean carryout up 10 million to 125mbu with 13/14 ending stocks dn 7 million to 116mbu

·         NOPA report released Mon. placed member crush at 110.5 million bushels, or about 1 ½ million above trade average

·         ATI Research: 13/14 all wheat carryout up 20 million to 555mbu due to higher imports

·         Wheat progress: Spring harvest, 90% vs. 99% in ‘12, 87% avg., winter planting, 12%, 10% LY, 12% avg.

ENERGY

·         Energy markets are mixed: QCLV13, down $0.24 to $106.33; QRBV, +.0009; QNGV,+$.007 and QHOV, -$.0108

·         Spot ethanol prices were lower: NY was reported 16 cents lower; the Gulf fell 8 and Chicago prices were down an average of 6 ½ cents.  Dallas and LA were 3 ½ and 1 lower, respectively; Tampa was 2 lower

·         RINs: 2012’s were down 3 ¾ at 55 ½-59 cents; 2013’s were 3 ½ lower at 57 ½--60; 2014’s fell 3 ¾c, to a 57 ½-60 range

·         The Oct RBOB/ethanol spread weakened to $.9320

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;              

·&​nbsp;        After falling $1.24 during the last two workdays of last week, Choice boxed beef values rebounded 33-cents Monday

·         The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $123.10, up 19-cents from the week before

·         After gaining $1.18 on Friday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 93-cents yesterday

·         The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $1.09 yesterday to $96.48

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

Brian Basting 
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com 
http://www.advance-trading.com