HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 2-3; Soybeans, Down 5-6+; Wheat, Down 2-3
· Global financial markets are mixed: most Asia markets closed lower with Europe off to a positive start. Principal markets: Nikkei, -.1%; Shanghai, -.9%; the Hang Seng, +.6%; Kospi, -.7%. The DAX, FTSE and CAC-40 are all .1-.3% higher. S&P decides not to down-grade Portugal’s credit rating. More evidence of improved U.S. earnings needed to sustain a higher market. Citigroup said to be bullish the mining sector. U.S. futures look better for Friday’s start: Dow, +53; S&P, +6; Nasdaq, +11 ¼. Externals: gold, up 60 cents; the energy complex is mostly higher and the $ Index is up .059 at 81.08 on the March contract.
· T-storm Weather: Intense heat and dryness blaze across Argentina through Sunday. A series of systems move across Argentina from Sunday night through Wednesday night. Scattered thunderstorms form; although GFS and European models generally indicate 1.50” – 3.00” is forthcoming, small deviations in the setup would lead to lesser amounts, which is why we remain more comfortable forecasting 0.75” – 1.50”, especially from Sunday night through Monday night, and again Wednesday-Thursday. Periods of heat also continue until the main system causes a cool front to sweep northward Jan. 23-24 and break the pattern
· Mar Corn Down $.0250 at $4.2550; May Down $.0225 at $4.3325. Funds were buyers of 3 K yesterday
· Mar SB Down $.0650 at $13.0850; May SB Down $.05 at $12.9125. Funds were even on SB, sold 2 SBM, bought 2 SBO
· Mar Wheat Down $.0250 at $5.7025; May Wheat Down $.03 at $5.7675. The funds acquired 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Nice recovery in U.S. export sales of corn of 32.3mbu was seen in the latest week-- a 26% increase over the prior 4-week average. Major buyers were Egypt and Japan but decreases for China were 6.7mbu
· T-storm Weather: Since December 1, the 2013/14 growing season for corn in Argentina has been too dry and too warm, suggesting the USDA yield projection is unlikely to be realized
· Consultant notes a weaker Brazilian currency might compensate for lower corn prices & spur more 2nd crop acreage
· USDA confirms corn used for fuel (ethanol) during Sept-Nov was 1.230Bbu, which was up 9.4% vs. last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Soybean export sales of 25.8mbu were nearly 5 times the prior week’s total and up 32% from the prior 4-week average. Is demand exceptionally strong or are users getting double-covered in case Brazil can’t executive?
· T-storm Weather: Much of Goias & Southeast Brazil, which account for 20% of Brazil’s soybean crop, have been too dry the past 30 days. However, drying is forecast to break in this area over the next week with 2.00”-4.00” forecast
· ATI Research: All wheat export sales of 11.8mbu were up compared to 4.1 last week but still 20% below the prior 4-week average. Sales of 46mbu the past four weeks were also sharply below the 80mbu sold for the period last year
· USDA implied June-August (2014) wheat feed/residual use is approximately 260mbu, which is down 37% vs. 2013
ENERGY
· Energy markets are mostly higher: QCLG14,+$0.53 at $94.49; QRBG, +$0.0113; QNGG,-$.033 andQHOG, +$.0155
· A mostly weaker tone was seen in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago and Tampa were off 2; Gulf was 6 lower; Dallas and New York edged down 1; but LA moved a penny higher to $2.62 per gallon
· RINs were mostly unchanged: 2012’s unch at 30-31; 2013’s were a ½ higher, 31-31 ½; with 2014’s steady at 30 ½-31
· The February RBOB/February ethanol spread narrowed up 5+ cents, to $.6661/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·   Choice boxed beef values gained $4.17 yesterday to set a new record high for a sixth consecutive day at $228.79
· Cattle futures also continued to make record highs yesterday with nearby February closing at $140.15
· After falling $1.19 the day before, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.39 yesterday
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 6-cents yesterday to $78.61
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather