HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, Down 1; Soybeans, Up ¼ to 1; Wheat, ¼ to ½ Higher
· “Muted” is the operative word describing the global equity markets as they tread water ahead of this week’s Fed policy meeting. Traders will be keen for any verbage that gives guidance on timing for winding down the stimulus program. Overseas, the Nikkei lost a ½%; the Hang Seng posted a .2% gain and the Shanghai Composite dropped a like amount. Across the pond, EU markets are from .1% (CAC-40) to .5% (FTSE) higher. Dow futures are 1.35 lower; the Nasdaq is 3.23 lower while S&P futures are in positive territory at +2.34. Gold is down $7.30; energies are weaker and the Dec $ Index is close to a ¼ point higher at 79.53
· Rain is forecast for the western Corn Belt today, while the eastern Belt remains mostly dry. More widespread precip is projected to slide eastward on Wed. with heaviest amounts remaining west of the Mississippi River across eastern Kansas, northern Missouri and southwest Iowa. Heaviest rain amounts shift even further east on Thurs. with nearly all of Illinois and Indiana possibly seeing 1.00”-2.00”. Temps remain near to above-normal through Wed. then cooler into the weekend
· Dec Corn Down $.0125 at $4.2950; Mar Corn Down $.01 at $4.4225. The funds sold 6 K to start the week off
· Nov SB Up $.0075 at $12.72; Jan SB Up $.0025 at $12.6825. Funds sold 15 K SB, 9 K SBM and 4 K SBO yesterday
· Dec Wheat Up $.0025 at $6.8125; Mar Wheat Up $.0050 at $6.9250. Funds again sold 4 K Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2013 corn futures traded to $4.30 ¼ on Monday, the lowest price for the contract since Aug. 26, 2010
· ATI Research: Good/Excellent corn conditions up 2 points to 62%; national yield up 1.2 bpa to 160.1. Crop size est is 14.028Bbu. Gain of 4% in G/E in Iowa and Ohio, respectively; Wisconsin +3, Michigan +3, Minnesota & S Dakota +2
· ATI Research: 13/14 corn ending stocks up 84mbu from last week to 2.216Bbu
· Corn progress: Mature, 98% vs. 100% in ’12 & 97% avg; harvest, 59% vs.891% LY & 62% avg.
· Export Inspections; Corn, 26.5mbu (23.9 needed) with China taking 3.0. Milo, 1.3 (3.0 needed) with China taking 22k
· Corn harvest price for crop insurance pegged at $4.40 ½ as of Oct. 28
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: 13/14 soybean ending stocks unchanged from last week at 195mbu
· Soybean progress: Dropping leaves, 98% vs. 99% in ‘12 & 5-year avg of 99%; harvest, 77% vs. 86% in ‘12, 77% avg
· Export Inspections: Soybeans, 83.6mbu (25.3 needed) with China taking 58.6
· Soybean harvest price for crop insurance pegged at $12.87 ½ as of Oct. 28
· ATI Research: 13/14 all wheat carryout pegged at 488mbu
· Export Inspections: Wheat, 16.3mbu (16.5 needed); nothing to China this week
· Winter wheat progress: Planted, 86% vs. 87% in ‘12 & 5-year avg of 85%; emergence, 65% vs. 61% in ‘12, 64% avg
ENERGY
· The energy complex is lower: QCLZ13, -$0.58 at $98.10; QRBZ, -$0.0218; QNGZ, -$.004 and QHOZ, -$.0162
· Cash ethanol markets were significantly weaker on Monday: Chicago and Dallas were 4 lower, respectively; Gulf off 3 ½; Tampa down 5 ½; NY was off 1 ½; and LA was 6 ½ lower at $2.12 per gallon
· Weaker trend in RINs persisted: 2012’s off 4 to 17-21; 2013’s were 4 lower at 18-22; and 2014’s down 2 ½ at 19-24
· The November RBOB/ethanol spread closed up $.0738 on Monday to settle at $.7999 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values jumped $2.15 yesterday and are $4.83 above a week earlier
· USDA 5-area average steer price was a record high $132.23 last week, the old record was $129.44 from March 2012
· After falling 78-cents on Friday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 68-cents yesterday
· Strong technical buying took multiple lean hog futures months to new contract highs yesterday
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather