HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 1; Soybeans, SU, 3-6 Lower; Wheat, 3 Lower
· Asia was quiet overnight—the Nikkei gained .3%; Shanghai was little change and the Hang Seng took the day off. Early European trade finds both the CAC 40 and the DAX .1% lower while fears that Scotland will exit from the U.K. has the FTSE .2% in the red. U.S. futures have the Dow steady and the S&P 500 .1% lower. The dollar continues to strengthen, up .109 at 84.35 this morning. October gold is $2.90 to the plus side at $1,256.10 and energy futures are mostly lower except for CLV, up $.81
· T-Storm Weather: Very warm and very cool air directly interact Tuesday-Wednesday, resulting in widespread coverage of heavy rain – especially across Iowa where over 3.00” is plausible. Strong winds will precede and follow the system. At least several days of drying follow across the southern Corn Belt and Delta to improve conditions for harvesting. Temperatures average 15°F - 25°F cooler than normal across much of the central U.S. within Thursday-Saturday. Widespread non-killing frost occurs in the northern Plains and northwest Corn Belt within Thursday-Saturday, followed by gradual warming
· Sep Corn Down $.01 at $3.3825; December Down $.0125 at $3.47. Del’y: 0 C. The funds sold 8 K to begin the week
· Sep Soybeans Down $.0525 at $10. 85; Nov Down $.03 at $10.0550. Del’y: SBO, 88. The funds sold 8 K SB; 6 K SBM; 5 K SBO
· Sep Wheat NA; December Down $.03 at $5.3050. Del’y: 133 HRW; 50 SRW. The funds sold 2 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: USDA pegs U.S. Good/Excellent corn ratings unchanged at 74%. Updated ATI crop size up 21mbu from last week to 14.399Bbu; yield at 171.8bpa
· ATI Research: Updated corn balance sheet--13/14 carryout up 6mbu to 1.130Bbu; 14/15 up 28 mil to 2.000Bbu
· USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn mature at 15% compared to 8% last year and the 5-year avg. of 26%
· T-storm Weather: Friday or Saturday morning is probable to be the coolest of the upcoming period, though frosts begin Thursday in at least the northern Plains and far northwest Corn Belt
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent U.S. soybean ratings unchanged at 72%; crop size also unchanged at 3.947Bbu
· ATI Research: Updated soybean balance sheet--13/14 carryout steady at 121mbu; 14/15 down 50 million to 513mbu
· T-storm Weather: We estimate that approx. 20% of U.S. soybean production will experience a non-killing frost event this week, while notably less receive a killing event
· ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent U.S. spring wheat dn 3 points to 60%; adjusted HRS crop est dn 6 mil at 542mbu
· ATI Research: Updated SRW wheat balance sheet--14/15 carryout at 191bu, up 68% from last year & 2nd highest ever
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly lower: QCLV14, +$0.81 at $93.47; QRBV,-$0.01; QNGV, 0$.010; and QHOV, -$.0075
· A mostly weaker trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago off 2 ½; Gulf slid 8 ½; Dallas was steady; Tampa declined 2; New York eased 4 ½; and LA was 6 lower at $2.29 per gallon
· Slightly weaker trend in RINs: 2012’s down ½ to 48-49; 2013’s off ½ to 48 ½-49; and 2014’s were ¼ lower at 48 ¾-49 ¼
· The October RBOB/Ethanol spread picked up ¼ of a cent, to $.5749 on Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values gained $2.72 yesterday and have increased $5.28 over the last four trading days
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $161.28 on a live basis, up $5.83 from the week before
· After easing 9-cents on Friday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 65-cents yesterday
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.99 to $96.79. October futures down $2.55 to $103.075, but are $6.285 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather