HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, CU Up ½; Soybeans, SQ Up 5 ¾; WU, Up ½; KWU, Up 1 ¾
· Asia closes higher: Nikkei, +.9%; Hang Seng, +.6%; and Shanghai, +.6% as well. Some concern noted by the BOJ that its monetary stimulus policy impact may be fading. Europe has been trading both sides with the FTSE up .10%; the DAX is .08% higher and the CAC 40, +.19%. Novartis reports income fell by 1/3rd; life is good among the wealthy, Hermes reports ½ year sales surge 21%. Wall Street is seeking direction: DOW futures, 9 lower; S&P500, +1/4; NAS, 7 higher in the pre-market. Externals: Gold is off $1.20 at $1,105.60; the $ Index, down .141 at 98.02 and energies are mixed with Sep WTI nearly unchanged
· T-storm Weather: A seasonable to cool pattern across the Corn Belt turns sharply warmer around Friday as heat expands from the Plains, ultimately resulting in above-normal warmth in at least the Plains and southwest half of the Corn Belt over the upcoming 10-day period. A few thunderstorm clusters occur along the southern periphery of coolness this week, but only including a small portion of wettest corn and soybeans (and SRW wheat)
· Sep Corn Up $.0050 at $4.1050; Dec Up $.0050 at $4.1650 . Fund selling estimated at 10 K on Monday
· Aug SB Up $.05750 at $10.1350; Nov Up $.06 at $10.0525. Funds: Sold 8 K SB, 4 K SBM and 1 K SBO
· Sep Wheat Up $.0025 at $5.33 Up $.0025 at $5.4275. The Funds sold 7 K to open the work week
CORN/SORGHUM       ; ;
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 16 mbu v. last week, 1.743 bbu; 15/16 dn 51, 1.454 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged at 38 mbu; 15/16 steady at 66 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent corn crop ratings unchanged at 69% with ATI crop estimate at 13.346 bbu
· USDA Crop Progress, corn silking: 55%, which is above last year’s 53% but slightly behind the 5-year average of 56%
· T-storm Weather: A cooler pattern is likely from July 30 forward, resulting in near-normal temperatures across a large area from late-month into early August. Near- or below-normal rainfall is most probable with the cooler pattern
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 2 at 259 mbu; 15/16 also off 2 million to 248 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent soybean crop ratings unchanged at 62% with ATI crop estimate at 3.654 bbu
· USDA Crop Progress, soybeans setting pods: 17%, which is equal to the 5-year average but behind last year’s 18%
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent spring wheat crop ratings down one point to 70%; ATI crop est, 563 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress, winter wheat harvest: 75% vs. 74% for last year and the avg. SRW progress still well behind
· ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet, 15/16 carryout up 10 at 240 mbu compared to 213 million for 14/15
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLQ15, $0.00, $50.44; EBU, +0.07; EBU-CLU, +6.30, +$.09, RBU, -$.0196; NGU, +$.039; HOU, -$.0017
· Additional deterioration noted in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago and Tampa slid 3; New York dropped 4 ¾; Gulf eased 3 ¾; Dallas down 2 ½; and LA was also 2 ½ lower at $1.65 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs for 2013, 2014 and 2015 were all down 5/8 at 44 1/8 in a range from 43 ¾-44 ½
· The Aug RBOB/Aug Ethanol spread continued to widen, out $.0357/gallon yesterday to $.4123
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values increased 53-cents on Monday to $233.83 but are still down $2.17 vs. a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price decreased $3.04 last week to $147.96/cwt & is down $8.09 vs. last year
· On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 6-cents to $82.06 and is up 55-cents vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.31 at $79.90. August futures $0.775 lower at $74.90, and are $5.00 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather