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Market Trend Corn, CU down 1, Soybeans, SQ up 1, WU, down 1 , KWU,

July 17, 2015 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CU down ½; Soybeans, SQ up 1 ¾; WU, down 1 ¾; KWU, down 3 ½             

·         Asia responded to strong U.S. earnings with all 3 major bourses posting gains:  Nikkei, +.25%; Hang Seng, +1.0%; Shanghai, +.3.5%.  The ECB re-opened financial channels to Greece, Europe starts off higher and then fades: FTSE, -.09%; DAX, -.27%; CAC 40, -.04%.  U.S. indices are mixed ahead of June CPI, building permits and consumer sentiment data.  DOW futures are 17 in the red; the NAS is up 13 and the S&P500 is fractionally lower, down -.25 points.  Outside markets show the $ Index little changed at 97.800 (-.006); August WTI is marginally lower, -$.07 and gold is $1,142.60, off $1.30

·         T-storm Weather: Hot upper-level high pressure in or near the central / southern Plains and Delta causes waves of energy to flow from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt over the next one to two weeks, resulting in widespread coverage of near- and above-average rainfall away from the high.  Temperatures range from above-normal across the southwest third of the central U.S. over the next week to near-normal across the northeast third as expanding heat is occasionally beaten back by cool fronts 

·         Sep Corn Downp $.0050 at $4.2950; Dec Down $.0050 at $4.4050 .  The Funds bought 4 Kon Thursday

·         Aug SB Up $.0175 at $10.2075; Nov Up $.0175 at $10.1275.   Funds: Sold 2 K SB, bought 2 K SBM and sold 1K SBO

·         Sep Wheat Down $.0175 at $5.6050;  Dec Down $.0150 at $5.6950.    The Funds endedThursday trading even

CORN/SORGHUM                                 &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;      

·         T-s​torm Weather: A sharply warmer pattern begins late next week; maximums in 90s-100s for several days.  Gradually shifts westward with time, likely leaving intense heat confined to southwest fringe of corn and soybeans by July 27-30

·         December 2015 corn futures closed at $4.41 on Thursday—one year ago, December 2014 corn settled at $3.86 ¾

·         ATI Research: Total growing degree days for Central Illinois corn since May 1: 1496 vs. 1410 last year & avg. of 1390

·         ATI Research: Combined old/new-crop unshipped corn export sales are 463 mbu, a 14% or 77 mbu decline from 2014

·         Year-to-date 14/15 U.S. sorghum export sales: 330.7 mbu (94.5% of USDA est).  Outstanding sales: 56 mbu v. 58 in ‘14

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         November 2015 soybean futures closed at $10.11 Thursday—one year ago, November 2014 futures settled at $11.02

·         ATI Research: 4-week avg. for new-crop U.S. soybean export sales of 9.5 mbu/week is 50% of what is was last summer

·         Crop consultant: Soybeans are under more stress than corn, especially in the saturated areas of the eastern Corn Belt

·         CBT September 2015 wheat futures closed at $5.62 ¼ Thurs.—one year ago, September 2014 futures settled at $5.38

·         ATI Research: U.S. HRW year-to-date export sales of 65 mbu are down 30% vs. last year and 43% below the 5-year vg.

ENERGY

·         Firmer:  CLQ15, -$0.07, $50.84; EBU, +0.09; EBU-CLU, +5.80, +$.12, RBQ, +$.0055; NGQ, +$.042; HOQ, +$.0024

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday: Chicago down 1 ¼; New York off ½; Gulf slipped 1; Tampa added 1 ½; Dallas steady; and LA was 1 lower at $1.72 per gallon

·         RINs post small losses: 2013’s down 3/8 to 45-45 ¾; 2014’s eased ½ to 45-45 ½; & 2015’s were ¼ lower at 45 ¼-45 ¾

·         The Aug RBOB/Aug Ethanol spread recovered nearly all that it lost Wednesday, gaining $.0438 to $.3227/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;            

·         Choice boxed beef values declined 99-cents Thursday to $233.95—lowest of 2015 and down $22.17 since June 24 

·         Dressed steer weight for week ending July 4: 875 lbs, up 3 pounds v. last week, 869.75 for 4-week avg. & 861 last year

·         On Thursday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 14-cents higher at $81.99 and is up $1.46 vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.04 to $80.55.  August futures up $0.70 at $76.00, but are $4.55 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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