HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, ½ Lower; Soybeans, Steady to 1 Lower old crop; Wheat, Steady to up ½
· The Nikkei eases .5% after the BOJ’s stimulus announcement lifted stocks the day before. The Hang Seng was little changed; the Kospi lost .4% and Shanghai rose 1.1%. Stocks in Europe are .3 to .5% lower and the U.S. looks poised to begin the day on a weaker note. Dow futures, off 55; S&P, 7 ¼ lower and the Nasdaq, down 9. Gold is $4 lower at $1,320.60; the energy complex is mixed but QCLH is up $.59 at $103.02 and the $ Index is marginally higher, +.009 at 80.055
· A surface-level high will limit rain across S/SE Brazil/Paraguay, but bring near-normal amounts to Argentina and above-average quantities for Center-West Brazil. Ideally, S/SE Brazil and Paraguay should be wetter with Center-West Brazil and Argentina on the dry set as the latter remains too wet; additional rains in the Center-West will curtail harvesting/2nd crop planting and continued dryness in South Brazil and Paraguay remains a concern for both 1st and 2nd planted crops. In the U.S., a small but powerful system brings widespread rainfall to SRW wheat in the Corn Belt/ Delta. A potentially intense snowstorm is expected from central IA into WI. Sharply colder weather follows next week, raising the chance for winterkill in NE/SD
· Mar Corn Down $.0025 at $4.4925; May Corn Down $.0050 at $4.55. Funds bought 10 K on Tuesday
· Mar SB Down $.0025 at $13.6075; May Down $.0025 at $13.4725. Funds bought 10 K SB; bought 6 K SBM and 9 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.0050 at $6.1250; May Wheat Steady at $6.0750. The funds bought 8 K on Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Corn futures move to highest level since early October—Brazil crop concerns, lower U.S. dollar and strength in crude oil all contribute to Tuesday’s positive close
· Corn inspections reach an 8-week high of 32.6 mbu, led by strong showing from Japan who lifted 14.5
· Brazil 2nd crop planting: Mato Grosso, up 30 points to 46% complete (41% LY); Parana, 20% increase to 41% (34% LY)
· French seed company Vilmorin expects U.S corn area to fall 203% in 2014 (93.4-92.5) versus 95.4 in 13/14
· Another decline expected in India’s 14/15 corn exports, down ½ MMT to 2.5-smaller area/rising domestic use
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: wheat balance sheet includes 10 mbu increase in imports and food use, c/o now at 575
· Another solid week of SB exports, 54 mbu versus 41 LY and 9 per week needed
· But the January NOPA report at 156.9 was 5 ½ mbu below trade expectations
· Bean futures reach a 9 week high on persistent demand; Brazil crop concerns; May sbm futures reach an all time contract high of $439.30 in yesterday’s market
· Cordonnier lowers Brazil crop estimate ½ MMT to 89.0; AgRural, 1.8 MMT lower at 87.0
· Indian Ag Attache expects 14/15 wheat output to rise 3.5 MMT to a record 96 million metric tons
ENERGY
· Energy markets are mixed: QCLH14, +$0.52 at $102.95; QRBH, 0$0.0058; QNGH, +$.353 andQHOH, -$.0064
· Cash ethanol markets moved higher to start the week; the Gulf and Dallas rose 10 ½ to 10 ½ cents; LA was up 7 ½ cents; Chicago picked up 2 ½ and both NY and Tampa posted 2 ½ cent gains
· RINs eased: 2012’s down ½, 56 ½ -58 ½; 2013’s also lost a ½, 57-59 and 2014’s were off a ¼, 54-56
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread tightened a penny +/-, to $.7373/gallon on Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values gained $1.01 yesterday and have increased $4.31 over the last two days
· Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards asking $145, but no packer bids reported. Cattle traded last week at mostly $142
· The USDA pork carcass cutout gained 47-cents yesterday and has increased $5.03 over the last nine trading days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 21-cents yesterday to $88.60
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather