HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, ¼ higher/lower; Soybeans, 4 higher; Wheat, ¼ higher to 3 lower.Europe: 3 ½ lower Wheat, Corn 4 lower
· Preliminary results from China’s HSBC’s purchasing managers’ index indicated a sharp rebound in September manufacturing activity, in contrast to market estimates for a decline due to a slumping real estate sector. Still, Asia finished mixed—Shanghai closed up .87%; the Nikkei lost .71% and the Hang Seng, ended .49% lower. Early trade in Europe finds all 3 major bourses lower—DAX, down .92%; FTSE, off 1.19% and the CAC 40, 1.48% in the red. Pre-opening indications suggest much the same for Wall Street: Dow, -43; S&P500, -6 and the NASDADQ, -15. Externals: energy futures are higher; gold is $8.80 to the plus side and the $ Index is weaker, off .35 to 84.65
· T-Storm Weather: A dissipating system triggers scattered showers and thunderstorms across and adjacent Kansas and Nebraska Tuesday-Wednesday. Otherwise, dry and increasingly mild weather occur over the next week. The next chance for rain holds until around Monday in the central / northern Plains, and possibly later next week as the same system slides into the Corn Belt. It is notable that the position of upper-level high pressure is often conducive to the formation of a tropical system in the Gulf or western Atlantic, but it will take many days to determine if a system might spin up and ultimately bring rain to southern crops
· Dec Corn Down $.0025 at $3.30; March Down $.0025 at $3.4250. The funds sold 5 K to open the week
· Nov Soybeans Up $.0450 at $9.4275; Jan Up $.0425 at $9.50. The funds again sold 8 K SB, 7 K SBM & 5 K SBO yesterday
· Dec Wheat Up $.0025 at $4.77; March Up $.0-25 at $4.8975. The funds went home even Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent corn ratings unch at 74%. Updated ATI harvested acreage for 2014 is reduced 2.0 million based on last week’s FSA acreage data; crop size declines 167mbu to 14.232Bbu with yield at 174.0bpa
· ATI Research: Updated corn balance sheet--13/14 carryout steady at 1.147Bbu; 14/15 down 170 million to 1.767Bbu
· USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn mature at 42% vs. 37% last year & 5-year avg. of 54%; corn harvest 7% vs. avg. of 15%
· T-storm Weather: A moderate chance for significant rainfall returns to the central/northern PlainsSunday-Monday. The same system eventually moves across the Corn Belt, resulting in a low chance for organized rain around Sept. 30
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent U.S. soybean ratings decline one point to 71%; crop size up 6mbu to 3.953Bbu
· ATI Research: Updated soybean balance sheet--13/14 carryout unch at 100mbu; 14/15 up 6 million to 548mbu
· T-storm Weather: Favorable conditions exist for maturation and harvesting of U.S. soybeans because 62% of production was drier than average over the last 7 days
· USDA Crop Progress: U.S. spring wheat harvest at 86% vs. 93% last year and the five-year average of 92%
· ATI Research: Updated HRW wheat balance sheet--14/15 carryout at 206mbu; 15/16 forecast at 325mbu
ENERGY
· Futures are all higher: QCLX14, +$0.36 at $91.20; QRBX,+$0.0077; QNGX, $.041; and QHOX, -$.0037
· Weaker trend continued in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago down 4 1/8; New York off 3 ½; Gulf slid 8 ½; Dallas eased 5 ½; Tampa dropped 8; and LA was 3 lower at $1.74 ½ per gallon
· Minor gains in RINs: 2012’s up ½ at 45 ½-46; 2013’s firmed 5/8 to 46-46 ½; and 2014’s gained 5/8 to 46-46 ½
· The October RBOB/Ethanol spread slipped a quarter cent to $.9497 per gallon to open the week
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values fell 69-cents yesterday and have lost $8.52 over the last seven trading days
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $156.74, down $4.10 from the week before
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.70 yesterday and has increased $4.96 over the last three trading days
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.16 to $105.30. October futures up $1.325 to $107.30 and are $2.00 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather