HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, 3 Higher; Soybeans, SU, +5; SX, Steady; Wheat, Down 4-5
· Weekend discussions among PM’s from Germany, Russia, the Ukraine and France build as a pre-cursor to cease fire talks—calms markets as European markets rally: FTSE, +.65%; the DAX, up 1.45% and the CAC 40, 1.12% to the plus side. Asia ends steady to better—the Hang Seng closed unchanged; the Nikkei posted a .03% gain and Shanghai rose .57%--lack-luster performance attributable to July’s decline in Chinese residential apartment prices, lower in 64 out of 70 cities. U.S. futures are positive: Dow, +.47%; the S&P, up .46% and the NAS, .46% higher
· T-Storm Weather: Beginning around midweek, a large system in the Pacific Northwest likely causes warmth to further expand through the central U.S., potentially resulting in the warmest period of the corn and soybean growing season as maximums reach the mid-80s to mid-90s within August 20-25. That said, thunderstorm clusters are expected, thereby continuing the probability for the next week to be near- or wetter than usual across a large area
· Sep Corn Up $.0325 at $3.69; December Up $.03 at $3.80. The funds ended the week buying 4 k
· Sep Soybeans Up $.0450 at $11.07; Nov Unch at $10.52. Funds were even on SB, bought 3 K SMB and sold 6 K SBO
· Sep Wheat Down $.0475 at $5.39; December Down $.0375 at $5.54. Fund activity for Fridayunavailable
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: USDA Crop Progress likely to show U.S. corn crop Good/Excellent 72-73% vs. 73% last week, 61% last yr.
· U.S. corn dented estimated to be 20-25% as of Aug. 17 compared to 10% last year and the 5-year avg. of approx. 28%
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 42.4 needed (after adjusting for discrepancy between FGIS and Census); 35.6 last week. Milo—7.5 needed; 12.5 last week
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 6,398 contracts
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Crop Progress likely to show U.S. soybean crop Good/Excellent 69-70% vs. 70% last week, 62% last year
· T-storm Weather: A continuation of near and above-average warmth with near- and above-average rainfall is most probable for the central and northern U.S. into late-month
· Export Inspections; Soybeans, 2.4 needed (after adjusting for discrepancy between FGIS and Census); 3.6 last week
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 7,442 contracts
· ATI Research: Crop Progress likely to show U.S. spring wheat Good/Excellent 69-70% vs. 70% last week, 66% last year
· Commitment of Traders: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions decrease 1,825 contracts
ENERGY
· Futures are weaker: QCLU14, -$1.04 to $96.31; QRBU,-$0.0269; QNGU, -$.021; and QHOU, -$.0250
· Cash ethanol markets ended weaker on Friday: Chicago, Tampa and Dallas all down 3; Gulf and New York off 3 ½; and LA was 1 lower at $2.44 per gallon
· Steady to weaker trend in RINs: 2012’s off ¼ at 49 ½-50; 2013’s down ¼ to 49 ½-50; and 2014’s unchanged at 49 ½-50
· The September RBOB/Ethanol spread halted its recent decline, gaining 4 ½ cents on Friday to $.5406/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ; Choice boxed beef values fell $1.20 Friday and have lost $6.87 over the last six trading days
· Cash cattle traded last week at mostly $155, down $5 from the week before
· After increasing $1.67 on Thursday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $4.27 Friday
· CME Lean Hog Index down $1.72 to $114.70. October future down $0.30 to $94.95 and are $19.75 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather