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MARKET TREND CH, Unchanged, SH, Up 1, WH, down 3

January 11, 2018 07:22 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Something for everyone: CH, +$.0025; SH, steady; WH, -$.01;  KWH, -$.0050

·       MACRO.  Not much news today, market might check New York Fed President’s remarks on inflation and unemployment.  ASIA—Mostly higher:  Nikkei, -0.33%; Shanghai, +0.11%; Hang Seng, +0.15%.  EUROPE:  Mostly weaker: DAX,-0.19%; FTSE,+0.04%; CAC, -0.02%.  WALL STREET—Turnaround Thursday—DOW futures, +24; S&P, +3.00; NAS, +6.25.  EXTERNALS: $ Index+.100 @ 92.17; Feb Gold$0 @ $1,319; Feb crude: +$0.41 @ $63.98.  Deliveries:  SBM, 27; SBO, 28; SB, 276; RR, 26; ETOH, 0 

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, mainly dry & hot weather continue through today, after which a cool front triggers thunderstorms Sat.-Sun., producing scattered totals of 0.50"-1.50" south & 1.00"-2.00" north.  In Brazil, northern growing areas turn drier with time over the next 10 to 14 days as upper-level high pressure forms.  Instead, thunderstorms focus to the south, turning wet areas of/near Parana wetter, while improving topsoil moisture in Rio Grande do Sul from 2.50"-5.00" over the period
  • CH, up $.0025 @ $3.4925; CK, up $.0050 @ $3.5750.  The funds were said to have bought 1 K at mid-week                  
  • SH, unch @ $9.77; SK, up $.0025 @ $9.6625.  Funds: Sold 6 K SB, 3 K SBM, 5 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.09, +2; LY, $.77
  • WH, down $.01 @ $4.3325; WK, down $.0075 @ $4.47.  Fund buying reported at 2 KWednesday

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 14-26 mbu for 17/18 corn

  • T-storm Weather: After scattered rainfall across Argentina corn areas this weekend, several days of dry and seasonable weather follow.  Another wave of energy is probable to trigger rain in at least northern areas Jan. 17-18

·       Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate is lowered 1.0 MMT to 41.0 MMT.  The weather in Argentina continues to be problematic especially in northern regions of the country where a lot of corn remains to be planted

  • Ethanol grind: Total of 996,000 barrels/day for week end Jan. 5—down 3.5% vs. prior week and 5.1% v. 2017    

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 18-31 for 17/18 soybeans; 75-250 for 17/18 soymeal; and 8-22 for 17/18 soyoil

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is lowered 2.0 MMT to 53.0.  In the hardest hit areas of north-central Buenos Aires province, 12% of beans are rated average to poor with a lot of moisture stress & flower abortion being reported

  • T-storm Weather: Northern soybean growing areas of Brazil turn drier with time, while southern areas stay wet

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for 17/18 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather: Light rain/snow develops today from Kansas/Colorado & points north/northeast.  Water-equivalent totals of 0.20”-0.60” occur, bringing first precip in more than 90 days to some HRW wheat; much more will be needed

ENERGY

·       Firmer: CLG18+$.41@ $63.98; EBH, +$0.29 @ $69.49; EBH-QCLH-$0.11; RBG,+.0051; NGG, +.027; HOG, +.0125

·       On Wednesday, cash ethanol markets remained mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.245, down $0.015; Basis to Chicago—New York, +15 ½; Gulf, +13; Dallas, +14; Tampa, +29; and LA, +32 ½

·       On Wed., ethanol RINs firmed: 2016’s up ¾ at 64-66 ½; 2017’s added ¾ to 65-67 ½; and 2018’s gained ¾ to 65-67 ½

·       The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread eased $.0033 to +$.50870/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               &​nbsp;     

  • Choice boxed beef values fell 43-cents on Wednesday to $210.06, but are still $1.44 higher compared to last week
  • Clean-up cash cattle sales were seen on Wed. in Kansas at $120—in line the trade activity seen earlier in the week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 17-cents on Wednesday to $78.70, and is up $1.09 vs. a week ago

  • CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.91 on Wed. to $67.28.  February futures eased $0.65, but are $5.245 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather



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