HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Much lower: CN, -$.07; SN, -$.2125; WN, -$.0725; KWN, -$.10
• MACRO:  White House threatens China with tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of goods.  Asia—Much lower: Nikkei, -1.77%; Shanghai, -3.82%; Hang Seng, -2.78%.  EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -1.37%; FTSE, -0.55%;CAC, -1.13%.  WALL STREET: Futures are down hard: DOW, -348; S&P, -31.25; NAS, -74.75.  EXTERNALS: July crude: -$0.80 @ $65.05; Aug Gold: +$1.60 @ $1,282; Dec $ Index, +.368 @ 94.365

·       T-storm Weather: No change in the immediate outlook as a cool front moves southward, stalling out Wed-Thu, and bringing widespread and heavy rainfall for the southern 2/3rds of the central U.S., with the more northern areas staying dry.  10-14 days out, the models point to the start of a notably warmer and drier period. Some t-storms are likely during this period in the north and eastern regions but amounts and frequency are as yet uncertain

·       CN, dn $.07 @ $3.49; CU, dn $.07 @ $3.5850.  Heavy fund selling on Monday, estimated at 25 K                 

• SN, dn $.2075 @ $8.8775; SQ, dn $.2075 @ $8.9325  Funds: sold 4 SB, 4 SBM; 0 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.55 , -$.10; LY: $.87
• WN, dn $.0725 @ $4.8275; WU, dn $.0775 @ $4.9375.  Monday found the funds selling 15 K                          

 CORN/SORGHUM

• Corn ratings were a surpise to the trade, up 1 to 78% with the market expecting a one point decline to 76%
• Yesterday, December 2018 corn futures continued on its downward spiral, closing at $3.7725 and making another contract low of $3.7500. Today looks like more of the same
• Corn exports were a robust 65.7 million, exceeding the high end of the 43-63 mbu range and were above the USDA’s implied rate of 56.5 per week

·       ATI Research added another 15 mbu to its old crop (17/18) export forecast, now 20 mbu above the USDA at 2.320 billion as the result of better than expected demand from particularly the EU

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Soybeans were rated 73%, down 1 with the trade expecting an unchanged figure this week. 97% of the crop has been planted, up 4 points on the week; 2 points ahead of the 2017 pace and 6 ahead of average

·       Sharp jump in spring wheat ratings, up 8 points to 78% G/E with the trade expecting an unchanged figure

·       Better than anticipated soybean export inspections—30.1 versus 13-24 expected & 26.4 needed; EU loads over 11 mbu this week, an unususally high amount for this time of year (Brazil logistics)

·       ATI Research boosts soybean export forecast 10 million to 2.060 billion, now just 5 less than the USDA. China took virtually no soybeans this week and is central to whether or not the 2.1+ bbu estimate held by many in the trade will be met

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLN18, -$.80 @ $65.05; EBQ, -$.38 @ $74.96; EBQ-QCLQ, +$0.39;RBN, -.0196; NGN, -.011; HON, -.0064

·       Cash ethanol markets were ½ to 2 ½ lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.3890, off $.0035; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.1185; Gulf, +$0.0823; Dallas, +$0.1010; Tampa, +$0.2310; and LA, +$0.2660 

·       Ethanol RINs were a ½ weaker on Monday with 2017’s in a $.15-$.17 range and 2018’s, $.23-$.25

·       The July RBOB/July ethanol spread gained $.0494 as the week opened, closing at +$.6556/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     ​          

• Choice boxed beef values were 88-cents lower on Monday at $220.71 and are down $4.42 compared to a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $3.38 v. last week at $111.28/cwt and is down $18.84 v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 22-cents on Monday to $83.30 and is up $4.29 vs. last week 
• CME Lean Hog Index was $1.42 higher on Mon. at $82.86.  July futures up $2.00 and are $0.865 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather