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HIGHLIGHTSMARKET TREND Mixed CN, Down 1, SN, Up 6, WN, Down 5

June 22, 2018 07:01 AM

HIGHLIGHTSMARKET TREND—Mixed: CN, +$.0025; SN, +$.06; WN, -$.0125; KWN, -$.0150

  • MACRO:  Investors will be watching the OPED conflab to see if a new agreement will be reached to expand output—the Saudis favor a boost, Iran is opposed.  Asia—Mostly firmer: Nikkei, -0.78%; Shanghai, +0.49%; Hang Seng, +0.15%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.30%; FTSE, +0.74%; CAC, +0.72%.  WALL STREET: A Positive end to the week? DOW, +91; S&P, +11.25; NAS, +23.50.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$0.66 @ $66.20; Aug Gold: +$0.20 @ $1,271; Dec $ Index-.094 @ 93.875

·       T-storm Weather: Areas of rain and thunderstorms focus on the Corn Belt into today (especially IL, IN, OH, MI, and WI), and then end as a large upper-level system swirls away and exits.  Additional systems follow, especially within Mon.-Thu. when the last in the series of systems passes.  A hot period then starts from west to east over June 26-28.  Heat then lasts in some fashion over the following week, but will be interrupted by some thunderstorms from time to time – especially in northern and eastern areas

·       CN, up $.0025 @ $3.5725; CU, up $.0025 @ $3.6675.  The funds bought 3 K on Thursday                 

  • SN, up $.06 @ $8.8650; SQ, up $.06 @ $8.9150.  Funds: sold 5 SB, 4SBM; 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.71 , +$.04; LY: $.89
  • WN, dn $.0125 @ $4.94; WU, dn $.0150 @ $5.0550.  The funds also bought 3 K yesterday                

   CORN/SORGHUM<​/strong>

  • December 2018 corn futures on Thursday closed at $3.78 ¼--one year ago, December 2017 futures settled at $3.80 ¾
  • T-storm Weather: A sharply warmer period develops over central U.S. corn over June 28-July 5 as highs in the 90s coincide with lows in the 70s in most areas.  It is most likely for rain of 0.50”-1.00” to affect most corn over the period
  • ATI Research: U.S. 17/18 corn export sales of 6.5 mbu for week end June 14 were dn 82% v. the previous week & the 4-week avg.  Unshipped export sales for 17/18 of 560 mbu are still up 44% v. last year & a record for this time of year

·       NWS U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook released Thu.: No drought development for any major corn area through Sep. 30

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • November 2018 soybean futures on Thu. closed at $9.01 ½--one year ago, November 2017 futures settled at $9.13 ¼
  • ATI Research: U.S. 17/18 soybean export sales of 11.1 mbu for week end June 14 were dn 42% vs. previous week, but up 48% v. the 4-week avg.  Unshipped export sales of 303 mbu are up 22% v. last year & a record for this time of year

·       T-storm Weather: Only 20% of U.S. soybean production was drier than normal over the 30-day period ending June 20

  • ATI Research: Unshipped all wheat export sales as of June 14 were just 156 mbu—dn 30% v. last year & a 9-year low

·       T-storm Weather: Drier and warmer than normal conditions are forecast for winter wheat in Russia over the next 7 to 10 days, while some rain is added Ukraine production areas

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLQ18+$.66 @ $66.20; EBQ, +$0.89 @ $73.94; EBQ-QCLQ, +$0.23RBQ, +.0168NGQ, -.008HOQ, +.0267

·       On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were firmer: Chicago was quoted at $1.405, up $0.015; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.115; Gulf, +$0.0875; Dallas, +$0.095; Tampa, +$0.23; and LA, +$0.265 

·       Ethanol RINs were significantly higher on Thursday: 2017’s gained 6 ¼ to 23-27; and 2018’s increased 4 ½ to 28-33

·       The July RBOB/July ethanol spread narrowed $.0282 to +$.5923/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            &​nbsp;                        <​/wbr>

  • Choice boxed beef values eased 88-cents on Thursday to $217.41 and are $4.67 lower vs. last week
  • Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: June 1 on feed, 103.4%; May placements, 96.0%; Marketed in May 105.2%
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 32-cents on Thu. to $84.30 and is $3.24 higher v. a week ago 
  • CME Lean Hog Index was $0.65 higher on Thu. at $85.79.  July futures firmed $0.45 but are $5.315 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

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