HIGHLIGHTS: MACRO:   Disappointing corporate earnings weigh on stocks early but market trims losses.  One analyst perhaps correctly noted that with ¾’s of company results in, the market may languish for a while and last month’s 16-day government holiday may yet reveal a negative impact on the economy; to wit, 77% of those firms providing Q4 guidance have pared back their forecasts.  In other news, Corelogic reported a .2% increase in September home prices as prices rises continue to slow; still, this month’s gain represented a 12% yr to yr boost. A little half-past mid-day on the East Coast, the NSD is up 5; the Dow is 4 in the red and the S&P is off 1.4.  Crude is down nearly $1.20/bl; the$ Index is .145 higher at 80.785 and gold is trading $4.50 lower. WEATHER: Argentina will be wet through Sunday with up to 1 ¼ to 2 ½” likely for the main corn and soybean producing areas.  The potential for field flooding is being closely watched as key areas of Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios (around 60% of corn and soybean production) have already received around 5.00” – 9.00” of rain over the last 30 days, WELL above average. Next week should be mostly dry, which will be beneficial. In Brazil, favorably-dry and warm weather through Saturday will allow planting to advance in central and southern growing areas (as well as Paraguay). Conditions will be less favorable across key areas of Goias, Mato Grosso, and Southeast Brazil. All of Brazil turns wet Sun-Tues with 1.00” – 2.00” amounts; net, mixed conditions. In the U.S., areas of rain/snow continue in cattle areas of the central and northern Plains today; the same system also slows remaining corn and soybean harvesting across much of the Corn Belt through Wed/Thu. Mainly dry weather follows for at least 5-7 days

Corn

·        Crop size potential continues to limit gains:  CZ, Down 1-2; CH, Down 1-2

·        Spreads: Z/H: -10 ½, Up ¼; Z/K: -18 ¼, Up ¼; Z/N: -25 ¼, Steady; H/K: -8, Down ¼; K/N: -7, ¼ Weaker; N/U: -6 ½, Unch; U/RZ, -8 ¾, Steady                        

·        FH Nov CIF is weaker this morning, bid 5 lower & offered down 3 at 79/84; LH Nov is 1-3 higher, 75/80. Brazil is unchanged: 40/70 for FH and full Nov; Dec is steady at 35/50.  Ethanol bids are mixed:  Cedar is 11 higher at +33 CZ; Decatur 3 lower at 15 CZ; Blair, steady at +5 CZ; IN plants are 2 to 6 firmer, -20 to -25 CZ.  Hereford shuttles, up 10 to 120 CZ for near-by/FH; Full Nov 10 higher, +15 CZ. Milo unchanged, CIF at 92 CZ; TX Gulf again goes unquoted

·        11/10 barge freight is mixed:  IL River, 575/600, up 25; the Upper is steady, 500/525; the Mid Miss is 5-10 lower,  535/550; STL is also 25 higher, 500/525; the Ohio is unchanged, 575/600 and Memphis-Cairo is 25 weaker today, 425/450

·        Friday:  Trade sees an average of 88.1 million harvested, 158.9 bpa yield for a 14.0 bbu crop (Reuters); versus USDA September of 89.1; 155.3 and 13.84 billion.  Talk of $4 CZ IF the report is bearish

·        Low prices stimulate more demand:  USDA reports 13/14 corn sales of 140 K to S Korea, 126 K to Unknown

·        Brazil corn line-up rises 1 to 52; volume slips 3 mbu to 115  

·        China attaché lowers crop 1 MMT to 210; sees 8 MMT lower domestic use; imports remain at 7.  Expects a big milo program, now at 2.0 and up 1.3 MMT from prior forecast

·        Ukraine’s grain harvest up nearly 27%  at 53.3 MMT, 13.3 more than this time LY

·        South Korea reported to have bought 60 K MT of Black Sea corn at approximately $240 C&F for April; are in the market for a like quantity from the U.S. for the same time frame

·        Dalian May 14 corn futures rose 4 ¾ cents, settling at $9.65 ¾ (Rate:  .16295 CNY/$US)

Soybeans    

·        Great demand now but with normal weather through spring/summer, supply could well out-pace even the most optimistic growth assumption:  SX, Down 6-7; SF, Down 7-8  

·        Spreads: X/F: +8 ½, Up 1; X/H: +23 ½, Up ½; X/K: +33 ¾, Up ¾; X/N: +36 ¼, Steady; F/H: +14 ¼, Off 1 ¼; H/K: +9 ½, Down ½; K/N: +3 ¼, Steady; Q/U: +36 ½, Off ½; U/X: +27 ¼, Up ¼                      

·        FH Nov CIF is 91/98, offered up 2; LHX is bid 1 higher, 91/96.  Dec is 2-3 firmer, 102/107. Brazil is unchanged at 250/300 for Nov; Feb bid/offered 55/60

·        Friday:  Trade at 75.9 harvested; 42.4  bpa yield for a 3.22 bbu crop; USDA: 76.4/41.2 bpa/3.15 bbu

·        USDA attache in China trims local soybean production estimate 200 K MT, down to 11.8 million MT

·        Brazil vessel line-up again holds at 7; volume remains at approximately 14 million

·        Dalian May soybean futures gained 5 cents overnight, to settle at $19.87 ¼  

Wheat

·        Conditions/planting weigh:  WZ, Down 5-6; KWZ, 4-5 Lower; MWZ, 4-5 Lower

·        Spreads:  WZ/WH: -11 ¼, Up ¼; KWZ/KWH: -2 ¾, Off ¼; MWZ/MWH: -10 ¾, Up ½ 

·        Nov SRW CIF: 90/97, 405 lower. HRW is up 5 for November, 165/ UNQ on the offer sideRatings for winter wheat improve 2 to 63% G/E, well above both LY and the 5-year average.  HRW and white improved, SRW slipped a bit

·        Trade on average, expects a 42 mbu reduction in ending stocks Friday, to 519 mbu.  Note NASS to re-survey growers in MT and ND due to lateness of harvest in September 

·        France’s Rouen grain exports fall 36% week to week to a 3 month low on weaker barley exports