HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 1; Soybeans, Steady (SH) to 2 lower (SX); Wheat, Down 1-2
· “Sluggish” seems to be the word du jour as there is little market news to hang one’s hat on. The Nikkei lost a ½%; the Hang Seng gained a like amount and Shanghai was .35% higher. Europe’s 3 major exchanges are all weaker, down from .1% (DAX) to .4% (CAC-40). U.S. futures, on the other hand, suggest a positive start—Down, +30; S&P, +4 & Nasdaq, +7 ¾. Gold is a ¼% weaker; the energies have a mixed tone and the $ Index is .045 higher at 80.21
· T-storm Weather: Several cool fronts sweep across Brazil and Paraguay and dissipate through 7-10 days, resulting in near-average rainfall across most areas. Although thunderstorms also affect areas in and near drought-stricken Minas Gerais, best rain chances do not begin until Saturday across the area. To the south, mainly dry and cool to unseasonably-cool weather dominates Argentina through 7-10 days; the wet pattern has ended. In the U.S., extreme coldness dominates northern areas of the Corn Belt and Plains through next Tuesday or Wednesday
· Mar Corn Down $.01 at $4.5475; May Down $.01 at $4.6025. The funds bought 4 K on Tuesday
· Mar SB Steady at $13.99; May SB Up $.0025 at $13.8750. Funds bought 6 K SB, 5K SBM and sold 3 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Down $.02 at $6.13; May Wheat Down $.0175 at $6.1625. The funds sold 4 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Weekly corn export inspections projected in the 30-35mbu/week range with 25 million to be shipped via the Mississippi River; 3-5 off the PNW; 4-5 through the Interior; and 1-2 between the Atlantic and Texas ports
· T-storm Weather: Cool pattern in Argentina through early March keeps filling corn free of temperature stress
· Private consultant notes that domestic corn prices have improved in Mato Grosso, Brazil over the last few months; if the weather dries out, farmers there may not cut back on double-crop corn planting as much as previously expected
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. 13/14 soybean export prospects still look very strong with more cancellations needed in order to reach the USDA annual forecast
· Private consultant notes that persistent rain and high humidity in Brazil’s largest soybean producing state of Mato Grosso are probably resulting in declining yields; there are also increasing concerns about the quality of the grain
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports forecasted to average 15-20mbu per week into late March
· T-storm Weather: Potential for winterkill on wheat in Nebraska & South Dakota on Saturday and/orSunday morning
ENERGY
· Energies are mixed with QCLJ14, +$0.34 at $102.17; QRBJ, -$0.0036; QNGJ, -$.111 and QHOJ, +$.0006
· Markedly firmer trend in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago gained 8 ½; Gulf soared 18 ½; NY up 3 ½; Tampa climbed 16 ½; Dallas 11 ½ higher; and LA prices advanced 18 to $2.81 per gallon
· EIA Stocks estimates (API): crude, +0.8 mb (+0.8); gasoline, -1.0 (-0.3); distillates, -1.1 (-0.7)
· Firmer trend in RINs: 2012’s up a penny to 57-58; 2013’s gained ¾ to 58-58 ½; and 2014’s climbed ¼ to 54 ½-55 ½
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread snapped in nearly 13 cents, to $.5651/gallon—shipping delays/export ideas
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
· Choice boxed beef values gained 68-cents yesterday and have gained $2.75 over the last two days
· Cash cattle markets are quiet with feedyards asking $147, but no packer bids. Cattle traded LW at mostly $145
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.27 yesterday and has increased $5.55 over the last four trading days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained 66-cents yesterday to $94.72
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather