Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Wearer: CU, -$.0175; SU, -$.03; WU, -$.0350; KWU, -$.04

·       What caught my eye:  Sizable declines in the Iowa conditions as anticipated with corn 10 points lower at 59% G/E and soybeans off 8 to 62%.  NE and ND did not fare well either, losing 4-5 points each on both commodities  

·       U.S. stock indices are again higher as the market monitor U.S./China trade discourse

• Asia—Mostly firm:  Nikkei, -0.20%; Shanghai, +0.36%; Hang Seng, +0.08%
• EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.57%; FTSE, +0.23%; CAC, +0.35%
• WALL STREET: Futures, up --DOW, +74; S&P, +5.75; NAS, +34
• EXTERNALS: Oct crude, -$0.24 @ $42.93; Gold: +$14.80 @ $2,014; Sep $ Index, -.317 @ 92.530
• T-storm Weather®: over the next week, U.S. corn & soybeans will be divided by hot upper-level high pressure to the west & cool surface-level high pressure to the east; temps to fluctuate & average slightly above-normal west & near-normal east.  Highs will be mostly in the 80s-90s & lows in the 60s; coolest early in the period, followed by mildness starting Thu.-Fri.  Dry weather persists until minor showers & thunderstorms develop Fri.-Sat. in/near IA, MN, & WI, though most of each region receive less than 0.25”
• CU, dn $.0175 @ $3.2925; CZ, dn $.0175 @ $3.43.  Funds bought 25 K Monday as crop concerns persist                               &n​bsp;             
• SU, dn $.03 @ $9.0950; SX, dn $.0325 @ $9.12.  Funds: bought 12 SB, 10 SBM, 3 BO.  Board crush: $0.88(U/U), +1; LY, $1.02
• WU, dn $.0350 @ $5.13; WZ, dn $.0425 @ $5.22.  The funds opened the week buying 12K, demand and in sympathy with row

CORN/SORGHUM

·       December 2020 corn futures on Mon. closed at $3.44 ¾, the highest settlement price for the contract since July 10

·       USDA estimates U.S. corn dough as of Aug. 16 at 76% vs. 50% last year & 5-year avg. of 69%; corn dent at 23% vs. 13% last year & avg. of 24%.  Good/Excellent crop ratings pegged at 69% vs. 71% last week but above 56% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: some rain is forecast next week across the U.S. Corn Belt, but totals mostly to be only 0.25"-0.75”

·       ATI Research: U.S. ending stocks of corn for 20/21 pegged at 2.731 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 2.756 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: total of 99%, 93%, 60%, 18% of Ukraine corn was drier than normal 14, 30, 60, 90 days ending Fri.

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       November 2020 soybean futures on Mon. closed at $9.15 ¼--highest settlement price for the contract since March 4

·       US soybeans setting pods: 84% v. 64% last year, 5-year avg. 79%; Good/Excellent, 72% v. 74% last week, 53% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: some rain is forecast next week across the U.S. Corn Belt, but totals mostly to be only 0.25"-0.75”

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 pegged at 0.616 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.610 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: some rains over the next week affect wheat in Australia, but with less vigor than recently

·       ATI Research: adjusting for results from ATI HRS Crop Tour, U.S. HRS wheat crop is unchanged v. last week at 563 mbu

ENERGY

·       Mixed:  CLV20, -$0.24 @ $42.93; EBV, -$0.11 @ $45.26; EBV-QCLV, +0.12; RBV, -.0080; NGV, +.015; HOV, +.0069

·       Chicago ethanol edged $.00875 higher to $1.31 Monday; basis, mostly weaker: NYC, -$.00375 @ +$.11500; Gulf, -.00375 @ +$.0950; Dallas, +$.01875 @ +$.0975; Tampa, -$.00625 @ +$.1925; LA, -$.00625 @ +$.1875

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +0.50 @ 38 ½  -40 ½ ;2020’s: +0.50 @ 42 -42 ½                           ​;                     &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                         ​        

·   ​;    The Sep RBOB/August ethanol spread is trading -$.0185, off -$.0210, premium ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                 &nb​sp;        

• Choice boxed beef firmed $3.02 on Mon. to $217.26, and is $10.66 higher compared to a week ago 
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $3.72 v. last week at $105.06/cwt, but is dn $1.62 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.60 on Mon. to $73.82, but is still $3.98 higher versus last week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $38.79/cwt vs. last week’s $39.37, last month’s $37.59 & last year’s $42.40

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®