HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker:  CZ, -$.0175; SX, -$.0225; WZ, -$.0550; KWZ, -$.04

·       What caught my eye: The past six weak to mild La Nina years have seen Argentina’s corn yield drop an average of 15% from the prior year; Brazil’s have risen about 3%.  If this holds true in 2021, combined production, about 4 MMT below the USDA forecast  

·       Europe/U.S. futures higher after Wednesday’s sell-off; Q3 U.S. GDP numbers out later this morning, 30+% gain expected

• Asia:  Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, -0.37%; Shanghai, +0.11%; Hang Seng, -0.49%
• EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.43%; FTSE, +0.19%; CAC, +0.17%
• WALL STREET: Higher?–DOW futures, +155; S&P, +24; NAS, +111
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, -$1.43 $35.96; Gold: -$1.50 @ $1,877; Mar $ Index, +0.151 @ 93.530
• T-storm Weather®: Prolonged rain, ice, and snow focuses today on the southeast third to half of KS and northern half of OK as an upper-level system slides eastward and produces 1.00” to 2.00” of water.  A dry period immediately follows for the region with little to no rain expected through at least the first 7-10 days of November.  The upper-level system in the southern Plains also merges with Hurricane Zeta today to produce 1.00” to 3.00” of rain across the mid-South and southeast third of the Corn Belt
• CZ, dn $.0175 @ $3.9975; CH, dn $.0150 @ $4.0275.  Covid-related demand concerns, funds sell 20 K           
• SX, dn $.0225 @ $10.5375; SF, dn $.01 @ $10.5375.  Funds sold 20 SB; 8 SBM; 8 SBO. Board crush: $1.39 (Z/X), +$.01; LY, $0.89
• WZ, dn $.0550 @ $6.0325; WH, dn $.0575 @ $6.02.  Funds sell 6 K                           

CORN/SORGHUM

​ ·       December 2020 corn futures on Wed. closed at $4.01 ½--the lowest settlement price for the contract since Oct. 14

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 28 – 59 mbu for 20/21 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: Limited rain through next week is not concerning for Argentina corn after recent substantial totals

·       Ethanol grind: 941,000 barrels/day for week ending Oct. 23—up 28 thou (3.1%) v. last week but 6.3% lower v. 2019

·       ATI Research: U.S. PNW and Gulf corn remains the least expensive origin until well after the first of the year for exporting corn into Japan

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       November 2020 soybean futures on Wed. closed at $10.57 ¼--lowest settlement for the contract since Oct. 19

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 37- 73 mbu for 20/21 soybeans; soymeal, 100 – 450 for 20/21; and soyoil, 5 - 40 for 20/21  

·       T-storm Weather®: Near- & above-normal rain forecast over next two weeks for soybeans in central & northern Brazil

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 7 - 26 mbu for 20/21 wheat

·       T-storm Weather®: Pockets of light rain this weekend & next week impact some of the driest wheat areas of Russia  

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLZ20, -$1.43 @ $35.96; EBZ, -$1.27 @ $39.93; EBZ-CLZ, +.01; RBZ, -.0197; NGZ, -.043; HOZ, -.0238

·       Chicago ethanol fell $.08625 yesterday to $1.52875.  Basis, firmer: NYC, +$.00625 @ $.08625; Gulf, +$.01125 @ +$.08625; Dallas, +$.02625 @ +$.08125; Tampa, +$.04125 @ +$.17625; LA, +$.04125 @ +$.16625

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -1.75 @ 57 ¾-59 ¼; 2020’s: -1.50 @ 58 ½ -60; 2021, -1.25 @ 60-61 ½                                              &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                         ​                        <​/wbr>

·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is off $.0109 at -$.4220 per gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       &​nbsp;               <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef declined $0.91 on Wednesday to $205.79, and is $2.68 lower versus last week
• Week-to-week declines in choice boxed beef have been seen for 19 consecutive trading days
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $4.24 on Wed. to $83.58, and is $13.61 lower compared to a week ago
• Lean Hog Index declined $1.20 on Wed. to $76.29.  December futures fell $1.275 and are $9.915 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®