HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker: CZ, -$.0250; SX, -$.06; WZ, -$.06; KWU, -$.0250.  Del’y: SBM, 360; HRW, 52; SB, 2; SRW, 3

·       What caught my eye: More talk that China’s corn supply deficit could result in imports for 2020 being as high as 20 MMMT with the U.S. likely to supply around 60% of that total       

·       Markets are higher, mostly carry-over effects from favorable U.S. mfg data yesterday

• Asia—Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, +0.47%; Shanghai, -0.17%; Hang Seng, -0.26%
• EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +2.34%; FTSE, +1.70%; CAC, +2.38%
• WALL STREET: Futures are higher --DOW, +192; S&P, +23.5; NAS, +125.25
• EXTERNALS: Oct crude, +$0.10 @ $42.86; Gold: -$3.80 @ $1,996; Sep $ Index, +.263 @ 92.600
• T-storm Weather®: scattered rains affect the southeast half of the U.S. Corn Belt today, while heavy totals focus on the Delta.  Dry weather then follows / continues through at least Saturday as areas of surface-level high pressure pass and temperatures fluctuate within a near-normal range.  A much cooler period begins Sun.-Mon. (Sep. 6-7) as a strong cold front passes and produces some showers, although little rainfall is expected because of low humidities
• CZ, dn $.0250 @ $3.5550; CH, dn $.0250 @ $3.6525.  The funds bought 7 K—“underwhelming” yield potential/export demand       
• SX, dn $.06 @ $9.4875; SF, dn $.06 @ $9.55.  Funds bot 3 K SB, 1 K SBO, sold 2 SBM. Board crush: $0.77 (V/X), -5; LY, $0.95
• WX, dn $.06 @ $5.58; WH, dn $.05 @ $5.6675.  The funds were buyers of 7 K Tuesday, said to be technically driven       

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: a stronger cold front develops next week across U.S. Corn Belt, leaving temps -6°F to -12°F from normal Sep. 7-12; 0.50”-1.00” of rain is forecast Sep. 8-9 for the Corn Belt, Delta, & much of central & southern Plains

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports remains in the 35 to 45 mbu per week range

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

·       T-storm Weather®: very warm weather affects corn in Ukraine this week, with 0.25” to 0.75” of rain over Fri.-Sat.

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: a stronger cold front develops next week across U.S. Corn Belt, leaving temps -6°F to -12°F from normal Sep. 7-12; 0.50”-1.00” of rain is forecast Sep. 8-9 for the Corn Belt, Delta, & much of central & southern Plains

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is increased 5 mbu to the 35 to 45 mbu per week range

·       T-storm Weather®: some rain impacts Australia wheat this week, but crops overall turn drier & warmer than normal

·       ATI Research: near-term exports of U.S. wheat are projected to continue to range from 16-20 mbu per week

ENERGY

·       Higher:  CLV20, +$0.10 @ $42.86; EBX, +$0.10 @ $45.68; EBX-QCLV, -0.01; RBV, +.0139; NGV, -.046; HOV, +.0047

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude -1.9 (-6.4); Gasoline -3.0 (-5.8); Distillates -1.4 (-1.4).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.931 mbpd (range: 0.918-0.945).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 20.648 mb (range: 20.410-21.207)

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.0275 yesterday to $1.40575; basis, mostly weaker: NYC, +$.00175 @ +$.11425; Gulf, -.015755 @ +$.9425; Dallas, -$.02075 @ +$.07425; Tampa, -$.02075 @ +$.16425; LA, -$.07075 @ +$.09425

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -0.875 @ 44 - 45; 2020’s: -0.625 @ 46-47.5                                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                     

·       The Oct RBOB/Sept ethanol spread is trading -.1382, of $.0004 and premium to ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &nb​sp;              

• Choice boxed beef was $0.39 higher on Tuesday, but is still down $1.34 versus last week
• Light cash cattle trade developed on Tuesday in the South, with sales mostly at $104—$1.00 lower than last week
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.33 on Tue. to $73.36, but is still $1.08 lower vs. a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.20 on Tue. to $56.80.  October futures gained $1.425 but are $1.775 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®