HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker:  CZ, -$.01; SF, -$.01; WZ, -$.03; KWZ, -$.0550

·       What caught my eye:  Still a lot of corn remaining in the field!  Production in the 18-reporting states is approximately 12.8 bbu and 2.045 billion  is yet to be harvested

·       Stocks are drifting today—mixed signals from the Fed & China.  ASIA: Mostly firm—Nikkei, +.0.35%; Shanghia, +0.03%; Hang Seng, -0.29%;   EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.18%; FTSE, +0.02%; CAC, -0.04%.  WALL STREET—Weaker—DOW futures, -6; S&P, 0.75; NAS, +26.25.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude: +$0.13 @ $578.14; Gold: +$1.50 @ $1,458; $ Index, -.026 @ 98.287

• T-storm Weather®: an extended period of drying is starting in Argentina that will leave rainfall later next month important.  Brazil & Paraguay are in need of rain, & near-normal totals are probable over the next two weeks.  In the central U.S., major logistics disruptions are plausible in / near MN, NE, SD, & WI through Sunday from a snowstorm today & a blizzard this weekend.  Rain & some snow affect the rest of the central U.S. to stop corn & soybean harvesting, while turning winter wheat areas wetter
• CZ, dn $.01 @ $3.6950; CH, dn $.0125 @ $3.7950.  The funds were reported as buyers of 2 K again on Monday
• SF, dn $.01 @ $8.9150; SH, dn $.0075 @ $9.0625.  Funds: Sold 3 SB, 1 SBM and 6 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.99, -1; LY, $1.08
• WZ, dn $.03 @ $5.28; WH, dn $.05 @ $5.28.  The funds continued as buyers on Monday, wih an estimated 8 K                 

CORN/SORGHUM

​ ·       U.S. corn harvest is 84%, up 8 points from last week but well below 93% last year and the 5-year average of 96%

·       T-storm Weather®: 5” to 10” of snow unfolds in a swath from NE through northwest IA, southeast SD, MN, & WI today, accompanied by strong wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph, disrupting logistics & stopping remaining corn harvesting

·       Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 corn crop est. lowered 1.0 MMT this week to 102.0 MMT with a lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 19/20 U.S. corn is 1.969 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 1.910

·       U.S. sorghum harvest is 97%, up 3 points from last week and well above 88% last year and the 5-year average of 92% 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean harvest is 94%, which is unchanged from last year but below the 5-year average of 97%

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 19/20 U.S. soybeans is 0.424 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 0.475

·       Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 soybean production est. is unchanged this week at 123.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias

·       T-storm Weather®: most Argentina soybean areas stay much drier than n*ormal next 10-14 days to worsen drought

·       U.S. winter wheat crop condition ratings for 2019 peg Good/Excellent at 52% vs. 52% last week and 55% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: a secondary system brings rain to HRW wheat from Kansas south on Thursday and produces 0.25” to 0.75” of rain with temperatures in the 40s and 50s

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLF20, +$0.13 @ $58.14; EBF, +$.14 @ $63.79; EBF-QCLF, +.01; RBF, +.0130; NGF, -.060; HOF, +.0093

·       Chicago ethanol was fell $.0525 Monday to $1.5350; basis values were firmer:  NYC, +$.0625 @ +$.1450; Gulf, +$.1075 @ +$.12; Dallas, +$.0975 @ +.15; Tampa, +9.25 @ +$.2550; LA, +$.0425 @ +$.2150

·       Ethanol RINs firmed: 2018’s, +0.75 6-7; 2019’s, +1.00 @ 12 ¾ -14; 2020’s, +0.75 @ 21 -22 ½                                   &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                    

·       The December RBOB/December ethanol spread narrowed $.0805 on Modany to $.1588/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                &nbs​p;         

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• Choice boxed beef firmed 67-cents on Monday to $233.24 but is still $5.88 lower versus a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $0.77 v. last week at $115.96/cwt, and is $0.57 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 34-cents on Mon. to $83.19 but is still $5.52 lower vs. last week

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.27/cwt vs. last week’s $48.12, last month’s $49.83 & last year’s $42.25  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®