HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker: CU, -$.0075; SU, -$.03; WU, -$.05; KWU, -$.04.  Del’y: SBM, 259; SBO, 0; Ethanol, 13

·       What caught my eye:  The USDA (and most analysts) have a pretty aggressive corn export program factored in for 20-21, up 21% in the case of the former.  Yet, the non-Chinese portion of new crop sales are more or less, only up about 12% versus a year ago

·       Jobless claims the focus this morning along with when, if and how much of a coronavirus relief package will Congress agree to

• Asia—Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, -0.43%; Shanghai, +0.26%; Hang Seng, -0.69%;
• EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.03%; FTSE, -1.23%; CAC, -0.56%. 
• WALL STREET: Futures, firm --DOW, +51; S&P, +2.25; NAS, +0.25
• EXTERNALS: Oct crude, -$0.27 @ $42.16; Gold: +$12.60 @ $2,062; Sep $ Index, -.070 @ 92.780

·       T-storm Weather®: unusual coolness breaks from west to east through Sat. across U.S. Corn Belt & does not return as highs in the 80s-90s & lows in the 60s-70s dominate over the 10 days that follow.  Minor showers & isolated thunderstorms accompany the warm-up through Fri. (scattered 0.10”-0.50” totals).  An organized thunderstorm cluster or two then form Sat.-Sun. within parts of the Dakotas & northwest two-thirds of Corn Belt, aiding some corn & soybeans with 0.50”-1.00” (esp. in/near MN & Dakotas)

• CU, dn $.0075 @ $3.1025; CZ, dn $.0050 @ $3.2275.  Funds were estimated to have bought 8 K yesterday                                      
• SU, dn $.03 @ $8.7325; SX, dn $.0275 @ $8.76.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 2 SBM, bot 1 SBO.  Board crush: $0.88 (U/U), +1; LY, $1.04
• WU, dn $.05 @ $5.0575; WZ, dn $.05 @ $5.1250.  Fund activity on Wednesday had them net buyers of 2 K               

CORN/SORGHUM

· &nbs​p;     Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 4-24 mbu for 19/20 corn and 79-102 for 20/21

·       T-storm Weather®: a weak cool front passes Mon.-Tue. & then stalls across U.S. Corn Belt, helping scattered rain to affect a wide corn area next week; end result is 0.50"-1.50" over next 7 to 8 days, which is near to wetter than normal

·       Ethanol grind: total of 931,000 barrels/day for the week ending July 31—down 27 thousand (2.8%) versus last week and 10.5% lower compared to last year’s 1,040,000

·       ATI Research: Brazil corn exports dn 30% v. 2019, as domestic corn prices rise in part due to more ethanol production

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 7-20 mbu for 19/20 soybeans and 22-44 for 20/21; soymeal, 100-450 K MT for 19/20 and 200-300 for 20/21; soyoil, 5-30 for 19/20 and 0-5 for 20/21  

·       T-storm Weather®: a weak cool front passes Mon.-Tue. & then stalls across U.S. Corn Belt, helping scattered rain to affect wide soybean area next week; end result is 0.50"-1.50" over next 7-8 days, which is near to wetter than normal

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 7-29 mbu for 20/21 wheat

·       T-storm Weather®: major rains begin Thu.-Fri. on wheat in eastern Australia, and Sat.-Sun. in Western Australia 

ENERGY

·       Mixed:  CLV20, -$0.27 @ $42.16; EBV, -$0.02 @ $45.15; EBV-QCLV, +0.26; RBV, +.0032; NGV, +.021; HOV, -.0059

·       Chicago ethanol was a ½ cent higher at $1.1650; basis, mixed: NYC,-$.0050 @ +$.0950; Gulf, -$.0050 @ +$.10; Dallas, -$.0050 @ +$.1050; Tampa, +$.0005 @ +$.2250; LA, +$.0050 @ +$.2250

·       Ethanol RIN values, lower: 2019’s, -2.75 @ 42-43; 2020’s: -2.125 @ 44 -46                                    &nbs​p;                                                 &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                

·       The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread is at $.0640, off $.0079 this morning, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         &n​bsp;             

• Choice boxed beef declined $0.58 on Wednesday to $203.66, but is still up $2.55 versus a week ago
• Cash cattle traded for $99 to $100 on Wed. in Texas, which is $2.50 to $3.50 higher than last week’s average
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.60 on Wed. to $66.47, but is still $0.83 lower versus last week
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.11 on Wed. to $52.92.  August futures eased $0.250 and are $3.47 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®