HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker: CN, -$.0350; SN, -$.02; WN, -$.0225; KWN, -$.01

·       What caught my eye:  Volatility?  Peter Navarro, Trump Administration Trade Adviser, 1^st said U.S.-Chinese trade is “over”, as a result of the latter’s slow response to the coronavirus outbreak.  Then, walks back comments after Trump tweet  

·       Navarro clarifies trade comment, markets rebound.  Asia: Higher-- Nikkei, +0.50%; Shanghai, +0.18%; Hang Seng, +1.62%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +2.57%; FTSE, +1.18%; CAC, +1.59%.  WALL STREET: Futures, higher --DOW, +240; S&P, +25.5; NAS, +69.   EXTERNALS: Aug crude, +$0.69 @ $41.42; Gold: +$5.60 @ $1,772; Sep $ Index, -.170@ 96.815

·       T-storm Weather®: a strong cool front triggers scattered thunderstorms today; 0.50"-1.00" totals across southeast half of corn & soybeans (where it is most needed), but such amounts are not enough to break dryness.  A very cool period with inconsequential showers follows for several days, after which sharp warming unfolds Thu. in the Plains & Fri.-Sat. elsewhere as a transition to a hot period begins.  Scattered rain accompanies the transition, bringing 0.50"-1.00" to a wide area (especially IA & MN)

• CN, dn $.0350 @ $3.2475; CU, dn $.0350 @ $3.2950.  The funds were said to have sold 6 K on Monday                       
• SN, dn $.02 @ $8.7425; SQ, dn $.0175 @ $8.7325.  Funds: sold—1 SB, 1 SBM, 2 SBO.  Board crush: $0.66 (N/N), -3; LY, $1.05
• WN, dn $.0225 @ $4.8275; WU, dn $.0225 @ $4.8725.  The funds began the week buying 2 K                

CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA estimates U.S. corn silking as of June 21 at 2% vs. 1% last year and the 5-year avg. of 2%; updated corn crop conditions peg combined Good/Excellent rating at 72% compared to 71% last week and 56% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: next week, a large system in the Northwest causes southwest winds to leave a wide area of U.S. corn hot.  Near- or above-normal temps and near- or below-normal rainfall dominate the first 7 to 10 days of July

·       ATI Research: U.S. ending stocks of corn for 20/21 pegged at 3.143 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 3.323 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: near-normal rainfall and warmer-than-normal temps (wet west) over the next 7-10 days impact Ukraine corn, generating a neutral weather outlook for the crop

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of June 21 at 96% vs. 83% last year and the 5-year average of 93%;   soybean crop conditions peg combined Good/Excellent rating at 70% compared to 72% last week & 54% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: 37% of U.S. soybeans were drier than normal last 30 days; rain needed most in IL, IN, OH, MI & KY

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 19/20 pegged at 0.623 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.585 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: thunderstorms from late-week forward focus on dry spring wheat in Canada, MT, & the Dakotas

·       ATI Research: after increasing KS production estimate based on harvest results, model pegs the 2020 winter wheat crop @ 1.256 bbu—HRW, 0.744; SRW, 0.286; & White, 0.226.  HRS crop model down 8 mbu to 0.529 bbu

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLQ20, +$0.69 @ $41.42; EBQ, +$0.73 @ $43.81; EBQ-QCLQ, +$0.03; RBN, +.0255; NGN, -.016; HON, +.0192

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.00525 yesterday to  $1.32475; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.02225 @ +$.11525; Gulf, +$.01775 @ +$.10275; Dallas, +$.00025 @+$.08525; Tampa, -$.00475 @ +$.17525; LA, +$.00525 @ +$.27525

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -1.25 @ 39 – 43; 2020’s: -1.00 @ 44-45                          ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                

&m​iddot;       The July RBOB/July ethanol spread narrowed slightly, $.0003 to +.03130

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                       &n​bsp;  

• Choice boxed beef firmed $0.34 on Monday to $214.06, but is still $14.55 lower versus a week ago   
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $3.69 v. last week at $100.78/cwt, and is dn $9.70 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $0.52 on Mon. to $64.22, but is still down $0.34 versus last week  
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $24.09/cwt vs. last week’s $26.00, last month’s $25.41 & last year’s $36.93

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®