HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker: CN, -$.02; SN, -$.0050; WN, -$.0325; KWN, -$.0325

·       What caught my eye: The supply of Brazilian soybeans seems endless: exports the first half of June are 6.3, well ahead of June 2019’s 4.0 MMT pace and with 7.8 million in the line-up, the monthly total could reach 14+, 2/3rds more than last year

·       Global equities are higher, following yesterday’s strong U.S. retail sales #.  Asia: Mostly firm-- Nikkei, -0.56%; Shanghai, +0.14%; Hang Seng, +0.56%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.10%; FTSE, +0.35%; CAC, +0.35%.  WALL STREET: Futures, firm--DOW, +58; S&P, +7.75; NAS, +35.75.   EXTERNALS: July crude, -$0.33 @ $38.05; Gold: -$15 @ $1,722; Sep $ Index, +.257 @ 97.190

·       T-storm Weather®: heat continues in the U.S. Plains through today, then ends when a cool front passes.  The cool front triggers some thunderstorms on western corn and soybeans Thu.-Fri., followed by thunderstorms across a wide area over Sat.-Mon. when a large system passes.  A lull in rainfall most likely follows, after which another system passes while a tropical wave flows near the Delta later next week, focusing rain on southern areas

• CN, dn $.02 @ $3.27; CU, dn $.0175 @ $3.3250.  The funds were even yesterday                      
• SN, dn $.0050 @ $8.6650; SQ, dn $.0050 @ $8.6750.  Funds: Sold 2 SB, 1 SBM, bot 5 SBO.  Board crush: $0.74 (N/N), +3; LY, $1.10
• WN, dn $.0325 @ $4.9275; WU, dn $.0350 @ $4.9775.  Fund selling on Tuesday totaled 6 K             

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm​ Weather®: beyond next Friday, it is most probable for a warmer period to begin as the jet stream flows across the northern U.S. over June 26 - July 1, triggering pockets of thunderstorms in varying corn areas

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is unchanged this week at 96.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather®: the near-term weather outlook for corn in Ukraine remains slightly favorable, as rainy and mild weather persists

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: beyond next Friday, it is most probable for a warmer period to begin as the jet stream flows across the northern U.S. over June 26 - July 1, triggering pockets of thunderstorms in varying soybean areas

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch this week at 50.0 MMT, with a neutral bias going forward

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is increased to 18-22 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: hot weather persists across the western part of the U.S. Southern Plains ahead of thunderstorms that begin Thu.-Fri.; totals of 0.75”-1.50” eventually impact most of Kansas into the weekend, slowing wheat harvest

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLN20, -$0.33 @ $38.05; EBQ, -$0.48 @ $40.47; EBQ-QCLQ, -$0.15; RBN, -.0063; NGN, +.016; HON, -.0048

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.2 (+3.9); Gasoline, -0.0 (+4.3); Distillates, +2.4 (+0.9).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 0.876 mbpd (range: 0.843-0.905).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.724 mb (range 21.502-22.000)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.04 higher at $1.31; basis, again mostly weaker:  NYC, +$.02250 @ +$.1075; Gulf, -$.0050 @ +$.0850; Dallas, -$.02 @ +$.10; Tampa, -$.02 @ +$.20; LA, -$.0050 @ +$.19

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +0.875 @ 47 – 49 ¼; 2020’s: +0.6250 @ 48-50 ½                                    ​;                        ​                         ​                                                  ​      

·      ​; The July RBOB/July ethanol spread edged out $.0016 to $.0073, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     &nb​sp; 

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• Choice boxed beef eased $0.72 on Tuesday to $227.8961, and is down $19.11 compared to a week ago  
• Est. for Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report: June 1 on feed, 99.0%; Placed in May, 97.5%; Marketed in May, 73.8%
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.02 lower on Tue. at $63.54, and is down $4.90 vs. last week
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.28 on Tue. to $48.10.  July futures declined $2.625 but are still $1.55 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®