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TRENDS Weaker CK, Down 2, SK, Down 3, WK, Down 3

March 26, 2020 07:00 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker:  CK, -$.04; SK, -$.0925; WK, -$.0650; KWK, -$.06 

·       What caught my eye: Today’s exports corn sales report will include the 30 mbu sale to China last week but it will be interesting to see if other buyers lift the total to the upper end of the 35-71 mbu trade range

·       Stimulus bill . . . buy the rumor, sell the fact.  Asia: Lower-- Nikkei, -4.51%; Shanghai, -0.60%; Hang Seng, -0.74%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.98%; FTSE, -1.94%; CAC, -1.69%.  WALL STREET: Futures, lower--DOW, -191; S&P, -33; NAS, -86.  EXTERNALS: May crude, -$0.50 $21.99Gold: -$7.40 $1,625; Sep $ Index, -0.780 @ 100.275

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, below-normal rainfall affects most second-corn, despite: 1) some thunderstorms in southern Brazil Sat.-Sun. and again around April 2; and 2) scattered thunderstorms in Goiás and Mato Grosso over the next few days.  GFS output is normally too wet, and is probably too wet now as it mis-handles most key features, which is why our forecast remains drier.  In Argentina, scattered thunderstorms return over Sun.-Tue. when a cool front passes and breaks another heat wave

  • CK, dn $.04 @ $3.4450; CN, dn $.03 @ $3.5050.  The funds buy 8 K, another daily sale and hopes China will be back for more 
  • SK, dn $0.0925 @ $8.7225; SN, dn $.0925 @ $8.7550.  Funds: Sold 3 SB; 5 SBM; bot 3 SBO.  Board crush: $1.19 (K/K), -17; LY, $0.99 
  • WK, dn $.0650 @ $5.7350; WN, dn $.0650 @ $5.6125.  The funds bought 10 K, spec buying?                       ​              

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending March 19; trade expects 35-71 mbu for 2019/20 corn sales

·       Consultant: the safrinha (double crop) corn in southern Brazil is still in vegetative development; thus, it is too early to be especially negative concerning potential yields, although the situation bears monitoring

·       T-storm Weather®: in southern Brazil, dry weather prevails on second-crop corn through at least Fri. with temps much warmer than normal (highs in the 90s); in central Brazil, scattered rain occurs on second-crop corn the next few days

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,005,000 barrels/day for week ending March 20, dn 2.9% v. prior week but up 3.1% v. 2019

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending March 19; trade expects 15-29 mbu for 2019/20 soybean sales; 100-350 for 19/20 soymeal; and 7-18 for 19/20 soyoil

·       Consultant: the Brazilian soybean harvest was 70% complete as of last Friday compared to the average of 68.5% according to Arc Mercosul

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, rain impacts a wide area Sun.-Tue., generating 0.75”-1.50” on most soybeans

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending March 19; trade expects 7-18 mbu for 2019/20 wheat sales

·       T-storm Weather®: a large system produces 0.50”-1.50” of rain from Fri. night through Sat. night across/near NE, the Corn Belt & Delta (wettest in IL, IN, OH), while HRW wheat in OK, TX, and southern areas of CO-KS stays dry

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLK20-$0.50 $21.99; EBK, -$0.49 @ $26.92; EBK-QCLK, +$.05; RBK, -.0033; NGK, +.009; HOK, -.0261

·       Chi​cago ethanol was $.03875 firmer at mid-week, rising to $.8950/gallon; basis, weaker:  NYC, -$.02125 @ $.0650; Gulf, -$.0075 @ $.0850; Dallas, -$.01875 @ +$.14; Tampa, -$.01875 @ +$.23; LA, -$.08875 @ +$.1050

·       Ethanol RINs values, firm/steady: 2018’s, +2.50 @ 25-27; 2019’s, unch @ 24 ½ -27; 2020’s, unch @ 28 -33                           &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                     <​/wbr>

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol inverse dropped $.0921 to $.3612/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &nbs​p;                       

  • ​ Choice boxed beef was $1.01 lower on Wednesday at $255.30, but is still $8.06 higher compared to last week
  • Light to moderate cash cattle trade developed on Wed. at mostly $120 in the South, up $10 v. last week's average

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.62 on Wed. to $78.46, but is still up $4.58 versus a week ago

  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $1.14 on Wed. to $65.12.  April futures eased $0.575 but are $0.730 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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