HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Weaker: CH, -$.0150; SH, -$.0725; WH, -$.0375; KWH, -$.05 

·      What caught my eye: Brazil’s soybean line-up stands at 196 mbu as harvest gets underway, 30% more than average and 80% larger than LY.  This doesn’t mean an immediate crash in U.S. exports, but don’t expect much over 40+/week for the next month

·      Some health officials say Chinese virus contained, markets stabilize. Asia: Higher: Nikkei, -0.55%; Shanghai, closed; Hang Seng, closed; EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, -0.17%; FTSE, +0.18%; CAC, +0.04%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Higher—DOW, +66; S&P, +6.75; NAS, +35.5.  EXTERNALS: March crude, -$.33 @ $52.81; Gold: +$1.40 @ $1,579; $ Index, +.032 @ 97.956 

·      T-storm Weather®: Alternating dry and stormy periods in Brazil ultimately produce near- and above-normal rainfall on most corn and soybean areas over the next two weeks, resulting in mixed weather for growth, harvesting, and planting; temperatures will generally be favorable as areas of surface-level high pressure or clouds leave most near to cooler than normal.  Cool temperatures will be the norm for Argentina as daily highs hold in the 80’s.  Most corn and beans will be drier than normal but soils are moist

• CH, dn $.0150 @ $3.79; CK, dn $.02 @ $3.8475.  Fund selling totaled 10 K—more virus worries   
• SH, dn $.0725 @ $8.90; SK, dn $.0725 @ $9.0325.  Funds: Sold 8 K SB; BO and SM were NA.  Board crush: $1.04, -2; LY, $0.96,-;
• WH, dn $.0375 @ $5.6850; WK, dn $.0475 @ $5.6650.  The funds began the week by selling 2 K

                    CORN/SORGHUM

·   &n​bsp;  U.S. corn exports for the 19/20 marketing year through Jan. 23 total 400 mbu, which is 53% below last year’s total of 849 mbu

·      ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 corn ending stocks are forecast at 2.107 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 1.892 bbu

• T-storm Weather®: Heavy t-storms since Friday focused on central and northern Brazil, except southern Goiás-Mato Grosso. T-storms will impact southern Brazil and Paraguay within Wed.-Mon., otherwise dry and seasonable
• Consultant: the 2019/20 Brazil corn left unchanged at 100.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward (changes from neutral LW).  Planting of safrinha corn in Mato Grosso is at 9.8% vs.15.3% last year & 9.2 % avg.

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      ​U.S. soybean exports for the 19/20 crop year through Jan. 23 were 927 mbu, which is 23% above last year’s 753 mbu

·      ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 soybean ending stocks forecast at 0.470 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 0.475 bbu

·      T-storm Weather®: some t-storms affect Argentina Tue.-Wed. and again next Mon.-Wed., otherwise dry. A fairly dry and cool period  is forecast over the next 10 days for Argentina soybeans

·      As of Friday, 64%, 65%, 57%, and 53% of Brazil soy. were drier than normal last 14, 30, 60, and 90 days

·      U.S. wheat exports for the 19/20 crop year through Jan. 23 were 596 mbu, which is 13% above last year’s 515 mbu

·      T-storm Weather®: some mild showers affect southern U.S. feedlots Tue. and Thu., otherwise dry and mild

ENERGY

·      Still weak: CLH20, -$.33 @ $52.81; EBH, -$0.69 @ $58.63; EBH-QCLH, -.35; RBH, -.0044; NGH, -.008; HOH, -.0092

·      Chicago ethanol eased $.0030 to $1.29; basis values vs Chicago were mixed:  NYC, +$.0580 @ $.14; Gulf, +.0380 @ $.1350; Dallas, -.0070 @ +$.10; Tampa, -.0020 @ +$.1950; LA, -$.002 @ +$.23

·      Ethanol RINs values firmed: 2018’s, +2.00 @ 9 -10; 2019’s, +2.00 @ 10 ½ -11 ¼; 2020’s, +1.8750 @ 17 ¼ -17 ¾                                    &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;        

·      The February RBOB/February ethanol spread was $.0323 narrower on Monday, closing at $.1679       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p; 

• Choice boxed beef eased 90-cents on Monday to $213.59, and is down $1.05 compared to last week  
• The 15-day consecutive trading day week-to-week increases in choice boxed beef values came to a halt on Monday

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $0.08 on Mon. to $76.56, and is $0.40 higher versus a week ago

·        Current nearby board hog crush value is $48.58/cwt vs. last week’s $49.11, last month’s $52.81 & last year’s $37.32       

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®