HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker:  CH, -$.0150; SH, -$.0075; WH, -$.0425; KWH, -$.0475

·       What caught my eye: Hmm.  A report on the South America corn situation by Rosario Board of Trade suggests increased demand in Brazil could trim as much as 8 ½ MMT from the 19/20 export outlook.  The USDA says domestic use will only be up 1.1 MMT

·       China introduces new measures to aid business affected by coronavirus.  Asia: Mostly firm: Nikkei, +0.89%; Shanghai, -0.32%; Hang Seng, +0.46%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.49%; FTSE, +0.80%; CAC, +0.59%.  WALL STREET: Futures, firm--DOW, +74; S&P, +7.75; NAS, +33.50.  EXTERNALS: March crude, +$0.65 @ $52.70; Gold: +$9.90 @ $1,614; Mar $ Index, +.067 @ 99.400

• T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, heavy rain affects a wide area over the next two weeks as cool air pushes far to the north, improving soil moisture for second-crop corn, but likely slowing first-crop harvesting and second-crop planting at times.  In Argentina, dry and cool weather dominate over the next 7 to 10 days as surface-level high pressure dominates, leaving temperatures ideal for reproductive and filling corn and soybeans, though heavy rain is not immediately foreseen
• CH, dn $0.0150 @ $3.8150; CK, dn $.0175 @ $3.8575.  Active fund buying on Tuesday—China, wheat . . . 15 K     
• SH, dn $.0075 @ $8.9150; SK, dn $.01 @ $9.0125.  Funds: even SB, bot 1 SBM, & sold 1 SBO.  Board crush: $0.86, +3; LY, $0.97,-; 
• WH, dn $.0425 @ $5.6250; WK, dn $.0425 @ $5.6075.  Funds buy 12 K as locusts invade Pakistan and SW

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 corn ending stocks are forecast at 1.976 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 1.892 bbu

• T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, heavy rainfall of 2.50” to 5.00” occurs over the next two weeks from the state of Paraná north, preventing dryness from being a problem for safrinha (double crop) corn through at least early-March

·       Consultant: 2019/20 Brazil corn est. is unch this week at 100.0 MMT; neutral bias going forward.  Approximately 90% of the safrinha (double crop) corn in the state of Mato Grosso will be planted within the ideal planting window

·       U.S. corn exports for the 19/20 marketing year through Feb. 13 totaled 485 mbu, which is 49% below last year’s total of 952 mbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 soybean ending stocks forecast at 0.495 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 0.425 bbu

·       Consultant: 2019/20 Argentina soybean est. increased 1.0 MMT to 54.0 MMT; neutral to higher bias going forward

• T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, dry and unseasonably cool weather dominate for the next 7 to 10 days; highs in the 70s-80s & lows in the 50s-60s occur most days, which is typically ideal for reproductive & post-reproductive soybeans

·       ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 wheat ending stocks forecast at 0.935 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 0.940 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: light precipitation affects southern half of the central U.S. Sat.-Sun., including most HRW wheat

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLH20, +$0.65 @ $52.70; EBJ, +$0.62 @ $58.13; EBJ-QCLJ, unch; RBH, +.0070; NGH, -.015; HOH, +.0160

·       Chicago ethanol closed up $.0110 at $1.3685; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.0010 @ $.0840; Gulf, +$.0040 @ $.1115; Dallas, +$.0040 @ +$.08150; Tampa, -$.0010 @ +$.1765; LA, +$.0040 @ +$.2015

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/firmerr: 2018’s, unch @ 23 ¾ -24 ¼; 2019’s, +1.00 @ 26 -28; 2020’s, +1.25 @ 31 ½ -34                                         &nbs​p;                        ​;                                                  ​;     

·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread gained $.0256 on Tuesday to close at $.2509/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &nbs​p;                      

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.13 on Tuesday to $206.13 and $1.70 lower versus last week
• Estimates for Feb. 21 USDA Cattle on Feed: Feb. 1 on feed, 102.3%; Placed in Jan., 101.5%; Marketed in Jan., 101.0%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value soared $2.52 on Tue. to $63.93 and is $1.08 higher versus a week ago   

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $42.37/cwt vs. last week’s $43.97, last month’s $49.48 & last year’s $37.43   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®