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TRENDS Weaker CH, Down 1, SH, Up 1, WH, Up 1

February 13, 2020 07:15 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker:  CH, -$.0250; SH, -$.0275; WH, -$.0025; KWH, -$.0325 

·       What caught my eye: With the USDA’s 1.825 bbu export forecast, China likely needs to buy an additional 250 mbu of U.S. soybeans.  Which, would about match last year’s performance.  Let’s see if much shows up in this morning’s sales report

·       Stocks slide as China reports an increase in virus reports.  Asia: Weaker: Nikkei, -0.14%; Shanghai, -0.71%; Hang Seng, -0.34%; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.93%; FTSE, -1.46%; CAC, -1.00%.  WALL STREET: Futures, down--DOW, -209; S&P, -23; NAS, -77.25.  EXTERNALS: March crude, -$0.20 $50.97; Gold: +$5.80 $1,577; Mar $ Index, -.057 @ 98.865

  • T-storm Weather®: near-ideal weather continues for corn and soybeans in Argentina as more thunderstorms within the next week are followed by another period of coolness.  In Brazil, areas of high pressure limit rainfall to aid harvesting and planting over the next seven to ten days, followed by a stormy period central and north as a cool front passes and brings rain to late-maturing and newly-planted crops
  • CH, dn $0.0250 @ $3.8050; CK, dn $.0250 @ $3.8475.  The funds bought 5 K at mid-week     
  • SH, dn $.0275 @ $8.8875; SK, dn $.0350 @ $9.00.  Funds: bot 4 SB, 1 SBM, & 3 SBO.  Board crush: $0.91, -2; LY, $0.96,-; 
  • WH, dn $.0025 @ $5.4725; WK, dn $.0175 @ $5.46275.  Fund buying on Wednesday was estimated at 4 k                         

CORN/SORGHUM

·    &​nbsp;  Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 28-47 mbu for 19/20 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: in central and northern Brazil, below-normal rainfall is forecast over the next 7 to 10 days, which is favorable for safrinha (double crop) corn planting.  That will be followed by a wetter period over Feb. 21-26

·       Consultant: Argentina 2019/20 corn production est. is unch at 47.5 MMT with a neutral bias going forward.  Corn in Argentina is not doing quite as well as soybeans because some corn was pollinating earlier when weather was drier

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,033,000 barrels/day for week end Feb. 7—dn 48,000 v. the prior week but up 0.4% v. 2019

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 22-37 for 19/20 soybeans; 125-400 for 19/20 soymeal; and 7-30 for 19/20 soyoil

·       Consultant: Argentina 2019/20 soybean production est. is unch at 53.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward.  Most agricultural areas of Argentina have favorable soil moisture as the soybeans enter their critical reproductive period

·       T-storm Weather®: in central and northern Brazil, below-normal rainfall is forecast over the next 7 to 10 days, which is favorable for soybean harvesting.  That will be followed by a wetter period over Feb. 21-26

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-24 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather®: much of the U.S. HRW wheat will be fairly dry over the next two weeks in the Plains, as areas of high pressure suppress precipitation.  In contrast, SRW wheat continues to experience field and river flooding

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLH20-$0.20 $50.97; EBJ, -$0.40 @ $55.52; EBJ-QCLJ-.26; RBH, -.0152; NGH, +.004; HOH, -.0086

·       Chicago ethanol was $.01125 higher at $1.3475; basis, mostly weaker:  NYC, -$.00125 @ $.08625; Gulf, +$.00375 @ $.11625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ +$.07625; Tampa, -$.00375 @ +$.17625; LA, -$.01125 @ +$.21125

·       Ethanol RINs values, firmer: 2018’s, +1.25 @ 21½-22 ½; 2019’s, +1.25 @ 23 ½ -24 ½; 2020’s, +1050 @ 28 -29 ½                          ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                     

·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread popped out $.0618 to $.2360/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY         &n​bsp;             &nb​sp;               

  • Choice boxed beef declined $1.52 on Wednesday to $206.31 and is down $4.41 compared to a week ago 
  • Moderate cash cattle trade developed on Wed. in the South at $118 to $119—$2.00 to $3.00 lower than last week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 8-cents on Wed. to $62.93 but is still down $1.22 vs. last week   

·         CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.61 on Wed. to $57.32.  February futures declined $0.450 & are $1.645 below the index              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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