HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker:  CH, -$.01; SH, -$.0350; WH, -$.04; KWH, -$.04

·       What caught my eye: Trade expecting planted corn acres between 92.0-95.5 million, up from 89.7 LY and 88.9 2YA.  Bean acres pegged at 83.0-87.5, & vs 76.1 LY and 89.2 2 YA.  Wheat, 43.7-48.0, against 45.2 LY and 47.8 2 YA

·       U.S. stock futures take a breather after new highs Wednesday.  Asia: Mostly firm: Nikkei, +0.34%; Shanghai, +1.84%; Hang Seng, -0.17%; EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, -0.01%; FTSE, +0.02%; CAC, -0.19%.  WALL STREET: Futures, dow--DOW, -44; S&P, -4.75; NAS, -14.75.  EXTERNALS: March crude, +$0.16 @ $53.45; Gold: +$2.50 @ $1,614; Mar $ Index, +.208 @ 99.800

• T-storm Weather®: thunderstorms frequently affect Brazil over the next two weeks as a cool air mass lingers much further to the north than is typical of late-February, likely producing near- and above-normal rainfall on all corn and soybean areas.  Conversely, mainly dry, ideally-cool, and sunny weather dominate corn and soybeans in Argentina into next month as expansive surface-level high pressure dominates
• CH, dn $0.01 @ $3.7950; CK, dn $.01 @ $3.8425.  Demand remains a worry, funds sold 4 K Wednesday      
• SH, dn $.0350 @ $8.9375; SK, dn $.0350 @ $9.02.  Funds: Bot 3 SB, 1 SBM, & sold 5 SBO.  Board crush: $0.81, -5; LY, $0.98,-; 
• WH, dn $.04 @ $5.6125; WK, dn $.0375 @ $5.5875.  Fund selling yesterday estimated at 3 K                            

CORN/SORGHUM

·    ​   T-storm Weather®: mainly dry and unseasonably cool weather dominate Argentina over the next 10 to 14 days, aiding reproductive and filling corn, though a finishing rain would probably be ideal in early March.

·       Consultant: soils in Argentina have very good water holding capacities, allowing corn to withstand short periods of dryness without yield reductions.  Argentina corn also contains new genetics that help crops withstand dryness

·       Ethanol margins: $0.09 per gallon—down vs. $0.10 last week and below $0.16 in 2019.  EIA report at 10:00 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-sto​rm Weather®: heavy rainfall of 3.00”-5.00” occurs over the next two weeks within a wide area in Brazil from the state of Paraná north, and lesser but significant totals of 1.50”-3.50” to the south; result is slowed soybean harvesting

·       Consultant: by end of last week, Brazilian soybeans were 27.4% harvested compared to 36.3% last year & 25.2% avg. according to ARC Mercosul.  Most early yields were positive, especially in the largest producing state of Mato Grosso

·       ATI Research: U.S. wheat exports over next 4 weeks are forecast to range from 15-20 mbu per week v. 20.7 last year

·       T-storm Weather®: substantial rain of 0.67”-1.33” focuses on concentrated HRW wheat in U.S. central Plains on Sun.

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLH20, +$0.16 @ $53.45; EBJ, -$0.05 @ $58.67; EBJ-QCLJ, -.24; RBH, +.0089; NGH, +.003; HOH, -.0048

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.5 (+4.2); Gasoline, +0.4 (-2.7); Distillates, -1.5 (-2.6).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.049 mbpd (range: 1.045-1.054).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 24.405 mb (range 24.058-24.658)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0135 lower at $1.3550; basis, firm:  NYC, +$.0010 @ $.0850; Gulf, +$.0035 @ $.1150; Dallas, +$.0035 @ +$.0850; Tampa, +$.0085 @ +$.1850; LA, +$.0035 @ +$.2050

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/weaker: 2018’s, -.75 @ 22 ¼ -24; 2019’s, -.75 @ 25 ½ -27; 2020’s, unch @ 32 -33 ½                          &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                      

·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread was $.0075 wider at $.3053/gallon; trading $.3128 this morning        

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &​nbsp;                     <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef fell 56-cents on Wednesday to $205.57 and is down 74-cents compared to a week ago
• Light cash cattle trade was reported on Wed. at $120 in Texas, which is $1.00 higher v. last week’s weighted avg.

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.00 lower on Wed. at $62.93 and is unchanged versus last week   

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.12 on Wed. to $55.54  April futures firmed $2.075 & are $12.035 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®