HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Up: CZ, +$.0450; SX, +$.0175; WZ, +$.0025; KWU, +$.0175. Del: SBM, 71; Corn, 220; Etoh, 8; HRW, 58; SB, 8; SRW, 11

·       What caught my eye: China needs 8 MMT of beans/mo which would put their Sep-Jan total at 40.  Estimated purchases from the U.S. are around 21 MMT.  Net of what S AM has left, is another 10-12 from the U.S. in the cards? Or, use some reserves?

·       Consensus estimate has August non-farm payrolls growing by 1.4 million, which would be a decline from July’s 1.76 figure

• Asia—Lower:  Nikkei, -1.11%; Shanghai, -0.87%; Hang Seng, -1.25%
• EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.36%; FTSE, +0.76%; CAC, +1.07%
• WALL STREET: Hoping to rebound, futures mostly higher --DOW, +179; S&P, +13; NAS, -32.25
• EXTERNALS: Oct crude, +$0.360 @ $41.73; Gold: +$7.30 @ $1,945; Sep $ Index, -.038 @ 92.635
• T-storm Weather®: dry weather continues in the U.S. through at least Saturday.  A heavy thunderstorm cluster erupts Saturday night and Sunday in / near eastern IA, northern IL, and WI, producing 0.50" to 1.50" totals.  Attention then turns to a very strong cold front and system that cause temperatures to plummet in the Plains Mon.-Tue. and induce non-killing frost in / near the Dakotas Wednesday, while also generating rain within Tue.-Thu. in / near the Corn Belt; 0.50" to 1.50" is most likely
• CZ, up $.0450 @ $3.5825; CH, up $.04 @ $3.6875.  A bit of rain in the forecast encouraged the funds to sell 8 K         
• SX, up $.0175 @ $9.6775; SF, up $.01 @ $9.7325.  Funds bot 4 SB, 4 K SBM, sold 3 SBO. Board crush: $0.73 (V/X), -3; LY, $0.90
• WX, up $.0025 @ $5.5350; WH, up $.0025 @ $5.62.  The funds sold an estimated 3 K on Thursday         

CORN/SORGHUM

·      &​nbsp;T-storm Weather®: the U.S. Corn Belt and Delta turn much cooler later next week, after which a drier period follows, though confidence in weather more than 7 to 10 days out is low at this time

·       Combined old and new-crop unshipped U.S. corn export sales as of Aug. 27 were a record 698 mbu, which is 155% higher compared to 274 mbu last year and is up 20% versus 584 mbu two years ago

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn mature crop progress on average increases approx. 10% from Aug. 30 – Sep. 6 to approx. 20%

·       The USDA is currently completing its surveys for the September 11 Crop Production report

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       November 2020 soybean futures on Thu. closed at $9.66—the highest settlement price for the contract since Jan. 14

·       T-storm Weather®: the U.S. Corn Belt and Delta turn much cooler later next week, after which a drier period follows, though confidence in weather more than 7 to 10 days out is low at this time

·       Combined old/new-crop unshipped U.S. soybean export sales as of Aug. 27 were a record 1.018 bbu, up 208% v. 2019

·       ATI Research: unshipped U.S. HRS wheat export sales as of Aug. 27 were 73 mbu—the highest total in 10 years

·       T-storm Weather®: 82%, 20%, 49%, 53% of expected Australia winter wheat drier than normal last 14, 30, 60, 90 days

ENERGY

·       Higher:  CLV20, +$0.360 @ $41.73; EBX, +$0.41 @ $44.48; EBX-QCLV, +0.08; RBV, +.0017; NGV, +.032; HOV, +.0122

·       Chicago ethanol gave up $.0210 yesterday, easing to $1.43; basis, firmer: NYC, +$.0385 @ +$.11; Gulf, +.0410 @ +$.0950; Dallas, +$.0360 @ +$.0550; Tampa, +$.0360 @ +$.1550; LA, +$.0310 @ +$.1350

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +0.75 @ 44 ½ - 45; 2020’s: +0.75 @ 46 ½ -47                                              ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;               

​ ·       The Oct RBOB/Sept ethanol spread is trading -.1774, off $.0073, premium to ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               ​        

• Choice boxed beef was $0.34 lower on Thursday, and is down $4.30 versus the previous week
• Light cash cattle trading occurred on Thur. in the Southern Plains at $102 to $103, which is $2-$3 lower vs. last week
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value soared $7.02 on Thu. to $79.91, & is $7.56 higher compared to a week ago 
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.62 on Thu. to $58.13.  October futures gained $2.850 and are $1.120 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®