Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Rebound: CZ, +$.0475; SF, +$.1075; WZ, +$.0275; KWZ, +$.0125.  Dalian Jan futures: C, -4 ½; SB, -36    

·       What caught my eye: Ukraine is said to have contracted to around 10 MMT for OND exports. Given the pace through Mid-Nov, this looks very achievable and would be a record for the period.  Despite the 20% forecasted decline in production this fall 

·       Covid cases surge; Mnuchin to allow Fed Reserve emergency programs to expire not well received; Fed publicly disagrees

• Asia:  Mostly firm:  Nikkei, -0.42%; Shanghai, +0.44%; Hang Seng, +0.36%
• EUROPE:  Higher:  DAX, +0.49%; FTSE, +0.70%; CAC, +0.64%
• WALL STREET: Mostly lower–DOW futures, -70; S&P, -5; NAS, +10.75
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, +$0.38 @ $42.12; Gold: -$18.20 @ $1,856; Mar $ Index, +0.086@ 92.320
• T-storm Weather®: Areas of high pressure leave a wide crop area of Brazil fairly dry over the next 7 to 10 days, except for the northeast ~20% of soybeans where a cool front triggers rain over the next few days.  Some thunderstorms return to the south in 1-2 weeks (and central areas later in the period), but will likely be suppressed in at least some key areas.  In Argentina, surface-level high pressure leaves a wide area fairly dry over the next five days.  Some rain next week keeps soil moisture adequate
• CZ, up $.0475 @ $4.2725; CH, up $.05 @ $4.3225. The funds sold 5 K yesterday, pushing CZ 3 ¼ lower
• SF, up $.1075 @ $11.8825; SH, up $.1175 @ $11.8725.  Funds: 0 SB, sell 1 SM, buy 2 BO. Board crush: $1.16 (Z/F), unch; LY, $0.98
• WZ, up $.0275 @ $5.9450; WH, up $.0225 @ $6.01.  Funds sell 4 K on poor export sales and a better HRW outlook                               ​;  

CORN/SORGHUM

·     &n​bsp; ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. corn export sales for 20/21 as of Nov. 12 were a record 1.056 bbu, which is more than triple the 0.317 bbu from last year.  Accelerated buying has been noted recently from Japan, Taiwan and South Korea  

·       T-storm Weather®: In Argentina, a cool front triggers thunderstorms within Tue.-Thu. (Nov. 24-26), producing 0.50” to 1.00” totals across early-corn

·       Consultant: About 31% of total Argentina corn was planted early—less than the normal of ~45%.  Bias is farmers will now plant less corn overall, although some intended early corn may be shifted to second phase planting in December

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Unshipped U.S. soybean export sales as of Nov. 12 were a record 1.063 bbu—up 155% from 0.417 bbu a year ago

·       T-storm Weather®: In central and northern Brazil, the likely forecast over the next two weeks is for 1.00” to 2.00” of rainfall across soybeans in the south to contrast with 2.00” to 4.00” north; ~3.00” to ~5.00” is normal

·       Consultant: Brazil 2020/21 soybean estimate is unch at 132.0 MMT, with a neutral to slightly lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. SRW wheat export sales as of Nov. 12 were 15 mbu—the lowest total since 2005

·       T-storm Weather®: Substantial rain likely affects ~33% of HRW wheat (OK & southern KS) Sat. as record mildness ends

ENERGY

·       Positive: CLZ20, +$0.38 @ $42.12; EBF, +$0.56 @ $44.76; EBF-CLF, +0.18; RBZ, +.0201; NGZ, +.069; HOZ, +.0164

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.0045 to $1.3850/gallon. Basis, weaker:  NYC, -$.0160 @ +$.0650; Gulf, -$.03550 @ +$.03; Dallas, -$.0155 @ +$.02; Tampa, -$.0255 @ +$.1150; LA, -$.0155 @ +$.1050

·       Ethanol RIN values, firm: 2019’s, up 0.25 @ 60-61 ½; 2020’s, up .025@ 61 -62 ½; 2021, up ½ @ 61 ½ – 64 ½                             <​wbr>                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                     ​

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is $.0457 firmer this morning at -$.1475 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &n​bsp;                     

• ​ Choice boxed beef firmed $1.86 on Thursday to $237.70, and is $11.20 higher versus a week ago
• Est. for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed report: Nov. 1 on feed, 101.8%; Placed in Oct., 90.8%; Marketed in Oct., 100.2%
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.72 higher on Thu. at $77.94, but is still down $4.11 versus last week
• Lean Hog Index eased$0.55 on Thu. to $68.77.  December futures fell $2.100 and are $5.070 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather