HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—No overnight trade.  Call this morning’s open steady/firm.  Dalian Jan futures: C, -1 ½; SB, +32 ¾     

·       What caught my eye: The weekly EIA ethanol production data suggests corn/milo crush is running about 75 mbu behind LY through the 1^st 12 weeks of 20-21.  At the current pace, use for the year would fall approximately 350 mbu below USDA

·       Global equities are mostly firmer this morning although the AstraZeneca vaccine at 70% efficacy has unnerved some investors

• Asia: Higher:  Nikkei, +0.40%; Shanghai, +1.14%; Hang Seng, +0.28%
• EUROPE:  Mostly firm:  DAX, +0.26%; FTSE, -0.48%; CAC, +0.46%
• WALL STREET: Higher–DOW futures, +49; S&P, +5.25; NAS, +42
• EXTERNALS: Jan crude, -$0.37 @ $45.34; Gold: -$1.10 @ $1,810; Mar $ Index, -0.031 @ 91.875
• T-storm Weather®: Most of Brazil will be dry over the next week as upper-level high pressure suppresses rainfall and leaves heavy thunderstorms confined to a stalled cool front in Rio Grande do Sul (and northern Argentina).  The high weakens in one to two weeks to allow the front to shift further north and trigger thunderstorms within a wide area of Brazil.  Argentina will be wetter through then as cool fronts occasionally pass and produce at least near-normal totals
• CZ, dn $.0575 Wed @ $4.20; CH, dn $.0 @ $4.2750.  The funds sold 10 K Wednesday, position-squaring ahead of 1^st notice day
• SF, dn $.0125 @ $11.90; SH, dn $.0150 @ $11.9175.  Funds: sold 5 SB, 2 SM, bot 1 BO. Board crush: $1.09 (Z/F), +$.05; LY, $0.97
• WZ, dn $.23 Wed @ $5.8825; WH, dn $.21 @ $5.9650.  The funds sold 12 K in an otherwise, light day of trading                              
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  CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 32-55 mbu for 20/21 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: In southern Brazil, a stormy period continues today across full-season corn in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.  Thunderstorms occasionally erupt over the 7 to 10 days that follow

·       Consultant: There is a lot of uncertainty regarding Brazilian corn production.  The safrinha (double crop) corn is going to be planted later than normal & there may be less safrinha planted depending on how late soybeans are harvested

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export​ Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 25- 50 mbu for 20/21 soybeans; soymeal, 100 – 300 for 20/21; and soyoil, 12 - 50 for 20/21  

·       T-storm Weather®: In central and northern Brazil, the most likely scenario over the next two weeks is for 1.50” to 3.00” to impact soybean areas, with most rain late in the period; 3.25” to 5.50” is normal

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 7 - 16 mbu for 20/21 wheat

·       T-storm Weather®: A large but humidity-starved upper-level system slides across the U.S. HRW wheat in southern Plains Sat.- Sun., generating light rain showers in / near OK-TX but not elsewhere

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLF21, -$0.37 @ $45.34; EBF, +$0.37 @ $48.17; EBF-CLF, +0.36; RBF, -.0087; NGF, -.035; HOF, -.0133

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0250 lower at mid-week, $1.36/gallon. Basis, firm:  NYC, +$.04 @ +$.09; Gulf, +$.01 @ +$.0750; Dallas, +$.01 @ +$.0450; Tampa, +$.0250 @ +$.1650; LA, +$.0250 @ +$.14

·       Ethanol RIN values, higher: 2019’s, up 1.375 @ 60 -61 ¼; 2020’s, up 1.375 @ 61-62 ¼; 2021, up 1.375 @ 62 –63 ¼                                  &nb​sp;                                                &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;               <​/wbr>

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is $.0174 firmer at -$.0651 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                ​;       

• Choice boxed beef increased $0.62 on Tuesday to $244.92, and is up $9.08 compared to last week 
• Cash cattle trade has seen light movement so far this week with prices steady to $1.00/cwt higher
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.74 on Wed. to $78.35, and is $2.13 higher versus a week ago
• Lean Hog Index fell $0.32 on Tue. to $67.38.  December futures gained $0.875 but remain $1.205 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather