HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly weaker: CZ, -$.0175; SX, -$.0325; WZ, +$.0025; KWZ, -$.0075 

·       What caught my eye: Is the market setting up for a surprise Wednesday? VERY little divergence between the average trade estimates for Sep 1 corn and soybean stocks versus last USDA #s:  corn just 3 mbu greater and soybeans, 1 mbu higher

·       Markets are mixed ahead of tonight’s long-awaited presidential debate

• Asia:  Mostly firm:  Nikkei, +0.12%; Shanghai, +0.21%; Hang Seng, -0.85%
• EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.61%; FTSE, -0.57%; CAC, -0.32%
• WALL STREET: Mostly weaker-–DOW futures, +4; S&P, -0.5; NAS, -18
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, -$0.16 @ $40.44; Gold: +$7.40 @ $1,890; Mar $ Index, -.194 @ 94.075
• T-storm Weather®: a series of cold fronts drop southward over the next week, leaving a wide area cooler to much-cooler than normal with highs in 50s-60s in Corn Belt & 60s-70s in Plains.  Lows reach 30s-40s most days, inducing widespread frost across the northern third to half of corn & soybeans Fri. as temps fall to the low- to mid-30s, though a killing freeze and end to the growing season is not expected as temps stay above 28°F (-2°C).  Some minor rain this week affects the Corn Belt, but little of consequence
• CZ, dn $.0175 @ $3.65; CH, dn $.0175 @ $3.7375.  The funds bought 4 K on Monday, position-squaring ahead of Wednesday     
• SX, dn $.0325 @ $9.93; SF, dn $.0350 @ $9.9675. Funds sold 4 K SB; 5 SBM; bot 3 SBO. Board crush: $1.02 (V/X), +.02; LY, $0.70
• WZ, up $.0025 @ $5.6050; WH, unch @ $5.57.  The funds bought 5 K to begin the week                      

​ CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA pegs Good/Excellent corn crop ratings at 61% vs. 61% last week and 57% last year.  Corn mature as of Sep. 27 was 75% vs. 39% last year & 5-year avg. of 65%; corn harvested is pegged at 15% vs. 10% last year & the avg. of 16% 

·       T-storm Weather®: most U.S. corn producing areas remain dry over the next 10 to 14 days, favoring harvest.  Sharp warming develops within Oct. 9-12 across a wide area of the central U.S., causing temps to be 10°F to 20°F warmer 

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for 20/21 pegged at 2.499 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 2.503 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: below-normal rainfall over the near-term likely limits corn planting in Argentina & southern Brazil

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA pegs Good/Excellent soybean crop ratings at 64% vs. 63% last week & 55% last year.  Soybeans dropping leaves as of Sep 27 was 74% vs. 49% last year & the avg. of 69%; soybeans harvested: 20% vs. 6% last year & avg. of 15% 

·       T-storm Weather®: most U.S. soybean producing areas remain dry over the next 10 to 14 days, favoring harvest 

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 pegged at 0.347 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.460 bbu

·       U.S.  winter wheat planting: 35% v. 34% last year & avg. of 33%; emergence: 20% v. 8% for both last year & the avg.

·       ATI Research: U.S. SRW ending stocks for 20/21 pegged at 0.102 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.108 bbu

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLX20, -$0.16 @ $40.44; EBX, -$0.15 @ $42.28; EBX-QCLX, +0.02; RBX, -.0056; NGX, -.057; HOX, -.0015

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.0150 on Monday to $1.4075; basis, weaker: NYC, -$.0075 @ +$.0775; Gulf, -.0125 @ +$.08; Dallas, -$.0050 @ +$.0375; Tampa, -$.01 @ +$.1275; LA, -$.0050 @ +$.1025

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -0.375 @ 44 ½ – 46 ¼; 2020’s: -0.375 @ 46-47 ¾                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                   ​

·       The Oct RBOB/Sept ethanol spread is trading $.0096 lower at -$.1780   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           ​            ​

• Choice boxed beef fell $1.62 on Monday to $217.72, but is still $1.50 higher compared to a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $1.51 v. last week at $105.05/cwt, and is up $0.12 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.73 on Mon. to $92.52, and is up $3.16 versus last week  
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $37.82/cwt vs. last week’s $36.06, last month’s $31.67 & last year’s $45.36

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®