HIGHLIGHTS

·       USDA Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports at 11:00 am CDT

·       TRENDS—Mostly weaker: CZ, -$.0175; SX, -$.0250; WZ, +$.0475; KWZ, +$.0475 

·       What caught my eye: Sep-May 19-20 feed/residual use is up 207 mbu versus 18-19; USDA’s 5.6 bbu estimate for TY (and trade forecast for Sep 1 stocks of 2.253 bbu) implies 4^th quarter total of 876 mbu, 36 million less than last summer.  QIV understated?

·       Markets assess the outcome of last night’s presidential debate, futures move decidedly lower

• Asia:  Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, -1.50%; Shanghai, -0.20%; Hang Seng, +0.79%
• EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.74%; FTSE, -0.29%; CAC, -0.67%
• WALL STREET: Lower-–DOW futures, -237; S&P, -26; NAS, -99
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, -$0.51 @ $38.78; Gold: -$13.60 @ $1,890; Mar $ Index, +.135 @ 94.030
• T-storm Weather®: Below to much-below normal rainfall affects the central U.S. over the next 10 to 14 days as upper-level high pressure to the west prevent storm systems from passing, & surface-level high pressure to the east limits humidities for organized rainfall.  Temps will be much cooler than normal over the next five days, but a killing freeze is not expected as lows stay in the 30s
• CZ, dn $.0175 @ $3.63; CH, dn $.02 @ $3.72.  The funds sold 4 K ahead of today’s NASS stx/small grains reports     
• SX, dn $.0250 @ $9.9050; SF, dn $.0225 @ $9.9475. Funds sold 5 K SB; 5 SBM; 6 SBO. Board crush: $0.89 (V/X), -.13; LY, $0.64
• WZ, up $.0475 @ $5.5425; WH, up $.0425 @ $5.6075.  The funds sold 1 K yesterday                       

·       USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade est. for U.S. Sep. 1 corn stocks, 2.250 bbu (range: 2.120-2.574)

·       T-storm Weather®: A much warmer period unfolds from west to east in 7 to 10 days across U.S. corn as coolness retreats and southerly winds develop, sending maximums to the 70s-80s in the Plains and 60s-70s in the Corn Belt

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is reduced to the 30 to 40 mbu per week range

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA​ Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade est. for U.S. Sep. 1 soybean stocks, 0.576 bbu (range: 0.490-0.608)

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is increased to a range of 59 to 73 mbu per week

·       USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade est. for U.S. Sep. 1 all wheat stocks, 2.242 bbu (range: 2.150-2.380)

·       USDA Small Grains Summary report: Avg. est. U.S. wheat crop, 1.841 bbu (range: 1.823-1.920); 1.838 in Aug.

·       ATI Research: Near-term exports of U.S. wheat are projected to continue to range from 16 to 20 mbu per week

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLX20, -$0.51 @ $38.78; EBX, -$0.58 @ $40.45; EBX-QCLX, -0.06; RBX, -.0271; NGX, -.063; HOX, -.0052

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude +0.8 (-0.8); Gasoline -0.7 (+1.6); Distillates -1.1 (-3.4).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.912 mbpd (range: 0.890-0.931).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 20.136 mb (range: 19.760-20.347)

·       Chicago ethanol edged $.0050 higher yesterday to $1.4125; basis, weaker: NYC, -$.0775 @ $.0000; Gulf, -.0025 @ +$.0775; Dallas, -$.00125 @ +$.0250; Tampa, -$.0125 @ +$.1150; LA, -$.0050 @ +$.0975

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +1.125 @ 45 ½ – 47 ½; 2020’s: +0.375 @ 46 ¾ -47 ¾                                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                         ​                                                  ​  

·       The Oct RBOB/Sept ethanol spread is trading $.0187 lower at -$.2345 this morning   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;

​
• Choice boxed beef eased $0.56 on Tuesday to $217.16, but is still up $1.72 versus last week 
• October live cattle futures on Tue. closed at $108.900—the highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 20
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.29 lower on Tue. at $91.23, but is still $3.29 higher vs. a week ago 
• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.49 on Tue. to $75.91.  October futures fell $0.325 and are $3.535 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®