HIGHLIGHTS

·       USDA Supply/Demand report at 11:00 am CDT

·       TRENDS—Mostly weaker: CN, +$.0025; SN, -$.0150; WN, -$.0350; KWN, -$.04

·       What caught my eye: Particularly interested in what the USDA does with its old crop soybean carry-out in today’s WASDE: exports seem to be 25-50 million to high (China) and crush, 15-20 million on the low side  

·       “Disconnect between asset performance & economic fundamentals can’t run forever”.  Asia: Down-- Nikkei, -2.82%; Shanghai, -0.78%; Hang Seng, -2.27%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -2.15%; FTSE, -2.08%; CAC, -2.29%.  WALL STREET: Futures, DOWN!--DOW, -500; S&P, -47.25; NAS, -109.5.   EXTERNALS: July crude, -$1.23 @ $38.37; Gold: +$19.20 @ $1,740; Sep $ Index, +.178 @ 96.085

·       T-storm Weather®: coolness that is underway in the Plains and western Corn Belt envelops all areas for several days as mainly dry weather dominates.  Sharp warming begins Sunday in the Plains and Mon.-Tue. in the Corn Belt and Delta, but most areas stay dry from low humidities despite the change in temperatures

• CN, up $.0025 @ $3.2650; CU, up $.0025 @ $3.32.  Funds sold 2 K at mid-week                    
• SN, dn $.0150 @ $8.64; SQ, dn $.0175 @ $8.66.  Funds: bot 2 SB, 2 SBM, sold 1 SBO.  Board crush: $0.78 (N/N), -1; LY, $1.32
• WN, dn $.0350 @ $5.0275; WU, dn $.0325 @ $5.0825.  Fund activity on Wednesday was said to be even           

CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. corn crop, 15.917 bbu (range: 15.460-15.995)

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. corn carryout, 2.163 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 3.356 bbu

·       Supply/Demand report: avg. guess 19/20 Brazil corn crop is 99.5 MMT (range 96.5-102.0); Argentina, 49.8 (49.0-50.0)

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 20-31 for 19/20 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: dry weather continues within a warm/hot period much of next week in U.S. Corn Belt (except for some rain in MT, ND, & MN); a large system & cool front at least temporarily break the very warm period June 20-21

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. guess 2020 U.S. soybean crop, 4.138 bbu (range: 4.118-4.273)

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.578 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 0.429 bbu

·       Supply/Demand: avg. guess 19/20 Brazil soybean crop is 123.0 MMT (range 120.9-125.0); Argentina, 50.7 (50.0-51.5)

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-33 mbu for 19/20 soybeans; soymeal, 100-400 K MT; soyoil, 10-35

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. all winter wheat crop is 1.239 bbu (range 1.211-1.290)  

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. all wheat carryout, 0.980 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 0.901 bbu

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 0-11 mbu for 19/20 all wheat and 7-18 mbu for 20/21

·       T-storm Weather®: numerous systems produce heavy rain near-term to break dryness/increase wetness on EU wheat

ENERGY

·       Down: CLN20, -$1.23 @ $38.37; EBQ, -$1.09 @ $40.64; EBQ-QCLQ, +$0.12; RBN, -.0303; NGN, +.007; HON, -.0293

·       Chicago ethanol continues to work higher, +$.0025 to $1.2725; basis, mostly weaker:  NYC, -$.0080 @ +$.0775; Gulf, -$.0075 @ +$.0925; Dallas, -$.0125 @ +$.1175; Tampa, -$.0075 @ +$.2325; LA, +$.0025 @ +$.2275

·       Ethanol RIN values, firm: 2019’s, +1.00 @ 45 - 46; 2020’s: +0.125 @ 46 -47 ¼                                                     &nb​sp;                                                 &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;            

·    &n​bsp;  The July RBOB/July ethanol inverse edged out $.0004 to $.0301/gallon on Wednesday, premium ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &nb​sp;                        

• Choice boxed beef declined $10.94 on Wednesday to $236.06, and is $59.84 lower compared to a week ago 
• Light cash cattle trade was reported on Wed. in the South at $108, $4.00 lower than last week's weighted average
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.47 on Wed. to $67.97, and is $6.31 lower versus last week
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.59 on Wed. to $51.18.  June futures were $0.275 lower and are $3.330 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®