HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly weaker:  CK, -$.0075; SK, +$.0175; WK, -$.1175; KWK, -$.0875

·       What caught my eye: Hearing some private consultants are contemplating scaling back their corn export estimates as the forward curve puts South American values at a notable discount to the U.S. Gulf and PNW

·       EIA expects a 9.3 mbpd drop in oil demand this year; April, down 29 mbpd.  Asia: Lower-- Nikkei, -0.45%; Shanghai, -0.57%; Hang Seng, -1.19%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.96%; FTSE, -1.93%; CAC, -1.73%.  WALL STREET: Futures, lower--DOW, -394; S&P, -53; NAS, -114.   EXTERNALS: May crude, -$0.62 @ $19.49; Gold: -$24.70 @ $1,744; Sep $ Index, +0.523 @ 99.375

·       T-storm Weather®:  in the U.S., a swath of light to moderate rain and snow streak from Nebraska through the southern half of the Corn Belt and Delta Thu.-Fri., while most other areas stay dry.  Dry weather then follows / continues this weekend and early next week as unseasonable coldness breaks and does not return.  Rainfall amounts may need to be increased in the Delta and southeast Corn Belt in one to two weeks

• CK, dn $.0075 @ $3.2525; CN, dn $.0025 @ $3.32.  Funds sell 6 K on Tuesday     
• SK, up $.0175 @ $8.4875; SN, up $.0325 @ $8.5875.  Funds: sold 6 SB, 3 SBM, 3 SBO.  Board crush: $0.80 (K/K), +3; LY, $1.02
• WK, dn $.1175 @ $5.37; WN, dn $.1125 @ $5.3850.  Fund selling yesterday was estimated at 4 K                              

CORN/SORGHU​M

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, scattered thunderstorms across safrinha (double crop) corn over the next five to seven days in the north contrast with no rain in the south.  A drier period then follows / continues for one to two weeks

·       Consultant: 2019/20 Argentina corn est. was unch this week at 49.0 MMT.  While higher yields in the core regions are supporting the nationwide average, output is projected to decline once harvest moves into the lower yielding areas

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is increased to 45-50 mbu per week

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: the 2019/20 Argentina soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 50.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, dry weather prevails over the next week, allowing soybean harvest to race forward

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports remains at 15-20 mbu per week  

·       T-storm Weather®: rain would be ideal in CO and KS because these states account for most of reason that 74% and 48% of U.S. HRW wheat was drier than normal over the last 14 and 30 days, including 96% and 82% from Kansas

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLK20, -$0.62 @ $19.49; EBM, -$1.31 @ $28.29; EBM-QCLM, -0.30; RBK, +.0186; NGK, -.028; HOK, -.0302

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +11.7 (+13.1); Gasoline, +0.4 (+2.2); Distillates, +1.4 (+5.6).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 0.609 mbpd (range: 0.569-0.642).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 27.555 mb (range 27.000-28.445)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0085 weaker yesterday at $.9215/gallon; basis, mostly weaker:  NYC, -$.0090 @ $.0285; Gulf, -$.0015 @ $.0835; Dallas, -$.0140 @ +$.0410; Tampa, -$.0215 @ +$.1335; LA, +$.0085 @ +$.0785

·       Ethanol RINs values, higher 2018’s, +3.25 @ 26 -27; 2019’s, +3.25 @ 30-31; 2020’s: +3.00 @ 39-42                               &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                     <​/wbr>

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol inverse was $.0137 narrower yesterday at -$.2270/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;

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• Choice boxed beef firmed 81-cents on Tuesday to $226.67, but is still down $1.21 versus a week ago
• Week-to-week declines have been seen in choice boxed beef values for 14 consecutive trading days
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 10-cents higher on Tue. at $52.49, but is still dn $1.21 vs. last week
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.53 on Tue. to $47.49.  April futures firmed $0.750 but are still $1.84 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®