HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly weaker:  CK, unch; SK, -$.02; WK, -$.0475; KWK, -$.03 

·       What caught my eye: Both corn and soybean inspections (moreso for the latter) were in line with trade thinking but still short of the weekly rate needed to reach the USDA’s 1.725 and 1.775 bbu export forecasts

·       White House nears completion of plan to reopen U.S. economy.  Asia: Higher-- Nikkei, +3.13%; Shanghai, +1.59%; Hang Seng, +0.56%; EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, +1.05%; FTSE, -0.56%; CAC, -0.03%.  WALL STREET: Futures, higher--DOW, +307; S&P, +32; NAS, +123.  EXTERNALS: May crude, -$0.27 @ $22.14; Gold: +$4.10 @ $1,766; Sep $ Index, -0.061 @ 99.245

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., unseasonable coldness produces hard freezes within a wide area over the next few mornings, especially today for HRW wheat, though a significant amount is headed only in TX as of the latest report on April 12.  Some rains also return to drier HRW wheat Thursday and more-so next week, while rains return to the southern Corn Belt and Delta from Friday forward with a milder period, resulting in mixed planting weather

• CK, unch @ $3.3150; CN, up $.0075 @ $3.37.  Funds began the week selling 2 K    
• SK, dn $.02 @ $8.5225; SN, dn $.0225 @ $8.60.  Funds: sell 7 SB, 7 SBM, 6 SBO.  Board crush: $0.77 (K/K), -5; LY, $1.01
• WK, dn $.0475 @ $5.5025; WN, dn $.0475 @ $5.5075.  The funds were even in Monday’s trading session                             

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of April 12 at 3% vs. 3% last year and the 5-year average of 4%.  Sorghum planting progress as of April 12 at 18% vs. 15% last year and the 5-year average of 17%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers scattered rain on most corn in Brazil over the next two days, producing 0.50"-1.00".  Dry weather follows for 7-10 days across the southern half to two-thirds of the crop, likely resulting in dryness

·       Consultant: the Brazil corn crop production estimate is unchanged this week at 98.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward 

·       ATI Research: U.S. 19/20 corn ending stocks estimate is 2.305 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 2.092 bbu

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      &​nbsp;Consultant: the Brazil soybean crop estimate is unchanged this week at 121.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: U.S. 19/20 soybean ending stocks estimate is 0.473 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.480 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, dry weather prevails over the next 7 to 10 days to aid soybean harvesting

·       ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat Good/Excellent unch at 62%; model pegs ‘20 crop @ 1.234 bbu, -9 mbu v. last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., temps remain sharply colder than normal over the next five days, peaking today with lows in the mid-20s (-4°C) on wheat in much of OK and TX, and mid-10s to low-20s (-5°C to - 10°C) from CO-KS north

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLK20, -$0.27 @ $22.14; EBM, -$0.10 @ $31.63; EBM-QCLM, -0.16; RBK, +.0282; NGK, -.015; HOK,&n​bsp;-.0041

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0375 higher Monday at $.9300/gallon; basis, mostly weaker:  NYC, -$.0175 @ $.0375; Gulf, +$.0250 @ $.0850; Dallas, -$.0175 @ +$.0550; Tampa, -$.0375 @ +$.1550; LA, -$.0975 @ +$.07

·       Ethanol RINs values, steady/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 23 -23 ½; 2019’s, +1.00 @ 26-28 ½; 2020’s: +0.50 @ 36-39                                    &nbs​p;                        ​;                                                  ​;                

​ ·       The May RBOB/May ethanol inverse narrowed $.0075 on Monday to -$.2332gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            ​           &nbs​p;               

• Choice boxed beef was $1.93 higher on Monday at $225.86, but is still $4.19 lower compared to last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $6.08 v. last week to $105.00/cwt, and is dn $21.19 v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 6-cents on Mon. to $52.39, but is still $4.90 lower vs. a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $26.53/cwt vs. last week’s $28.32, last month’s $47.60 & last year’s $70.92

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®