HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Mostly weaker: CH, -$.0425; SH, +$.0125; WH, -$.0050; KWH, +$.0025
· What caught my eye: The soybean oil balance sheet could provide the largest changes tomorrow as to-date domestic use is off about 12% year to year and exports are up 24%. Current USDA forecasts are up 3% and down 14%, respectively
· Coronavirus toll in China exceeds 900, surpassing the SARS epidemic. Asia: Mostly lower: Nikkei, -0.60%; Shanghai, +0.51%; Hang Seng, -0.59%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -0.19%; FTSE, -0.25%; CAC, -0.23%. WALL STREET: Futures, up slightly--DOW, +4; S&P, +1.75; NAS, +12.25 EXTERNALS: March crude, -$0.24 @ $50.08; Gold: +$3.20 @ $1,577; Mar $ Index, +.109 @ 98.490
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T-storm Weather®: near-ideal weather continues for corn and soybean development in Argentina into Thursday—dry and cool with maximums mostly in the 80s, averaging -5°F to -10°F from normal—followed by another stormy period from late-week forward. In Brazil, most areas will be drier than normal over the next two weeks as areas of high pressure limit thunderstorm coverage, aiding soybean harvesting and second-crop corn planting in central and northern regions
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CH, dn $0.0425 @ $3.7925; CK, dn $.04 @ $3.8450. Funds were buyers of 6 K on hopes for improved demand
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SH, up $.0125 @ $8.8325; SK, up $.0175 @ $8.9675. Funds: Bot 1 SB; 1 SBM & sold 3 K SBO. Board crush: $0.95, -2; LY, $0.98,-;
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WH, dn $.0050 @ $5.5825; WK, dn $.0025 @ $5.5659. The funds bought 2 K at week’s end
CORN/SORGHUM
USDA WASDE report Feb. 11: Avg. trade est. U.S. corn carryout--19/20, 1.880 bbu (range 1.788-2.017) & 1.892 in Jan.
USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. Brazil corn crop--19/20, 100.9 MMT; Argentina corn crop—19/20, 49.8 MMT
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 45.1 mbu needed; 22.1 last week. Milo—2.5 needed; 0.3 last week
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T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, a cool front triggers scattered rain over Thu.-Sat., producing generalized totals of 0.25”-0.75”. A strong system then passes Feb. 16-18 & produces heavy rainfall of 1.00”-2.00” across a wide corn area
· Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week indicated that recent rainfall has improved the moisture reserves in early and late-planted corn in Argentina
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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USDA WASDE on Feb. 11: Avg. trade est. U.S. soybean carryout--19/20, 0.448 bbu (range 0.320-0.520) & 0.475 in Jan.
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USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. Brazil soybean crop--19/20, 123.7 MMT; Argentina bean crop—19/20, 53.1 MMT
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 26.6 mbu needed; 49.8 last week
· Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week reported 96% of the soybeans are in adequate to ideal moisture condition
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USDA WASDE on Feb. 11: Avg. trade est. U.S. wheat carryout--19/20, 0.959 bbu (range 0.934-0.999) & 0.965 in Jan.
· T-storm Weather®: a large system Tue.-Wed. produces 0.25”-0.75” of water in U.S. southern Plains (including HRW wheat in OK & TX) & southeast half of Corn Belt; much higher totals (1.00”-3.00”) occur across the Delta
ENERGY
· Down: CLH20, -$0.24@ $50.08; EBJ, -$0.32 @ $54.48; EBJ-QCLJ, -.03; RBH, -.0131; NGH, -.071; HOH, -.0121
· Chicago ethanol edged up $.00125 Friday; basis values versus Chicago were mostly firm: NYC, +$.0050 @ $.0975; Gulf, unch @ $.1175; Dallas, +$.0050 @ +$.0925; Tampa, +$.0050 @ +$.1875; LA, +$.0050 @ +$.22250
· Ethanol RINs values, lower: 2018’s, -2.25 @ 16 ½-18; 2019’s, -1.25 @ 17 ½ -21; 2020’s, -1.500 @ 23 -25      
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread widened $.0189 to close out the week at $.1839/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef fell 81-cents on Friday to $210.12 and is $2.88 lower versus the previous week
· Moderate cash cattle trade developed on Fri. in the South at $121, $1.00 lower than the prior week's weighted avg.
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 59-cents on Fri. to $63.30 & is $5.65 lower compared to last week
· CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.87 on Fri. to $59.58. February futures eased $0.600 & are $2.480 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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