IGHLIGHTS

·       USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released at 11:00 am CST

·       TRENDS—Mostly weaker:  CH, -$.0125; SH, +$.0075; WH, -$.03; KWH, -$.0050 

·       What caught my eye: Trade sees ending U.S. SB stx 27 lower yet some analysts argue a larger Brazilian crop estimate with raise exports from that origin and, reduce the U.S. total.  And then, there is the thinking Phase I will show up in today’s #’s

·       Coronavirus cases slow in China, markets optimistic Beijing taking proper steps.  Asia: Firm: Nikkei, closed; Shanghai, +0.39%; Hang Seng, +1.26%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.80%; FTSE, +0.84%; CAC, +0.51%.  WALL STREET: Futures, are up--DOW, +69; S&P, +7.75; NAS, +37  EXTERNALS: March crude, +$0.88 @ $50.45; Gold: -$7.40 @ $1,572; Mar $ Index, -.014 @ 98.700

• T-storm Weather®: favorable weather affects corn & soybeans in Argentina as coolness over the next few days is followed by a stormy period, but some field flooding is plausible in central areas from heavy totals next week.  In Brazil, areas of high pressure leave corn & soybean areas drier than normal over the next two weeks, aiding first-crop harvesting and second-crop planting
• CH, dn $0.0125 @ $3.8050; CK, dn $.01 @ $3.8550.  Funds began the week selling 5 K, despite a pick-up in exports    
• SH, up $.0075 @ $8.85; SK, up $.0050 @ $8.9775.  Funds: Bot 2 SB; 3 SBM & sold 4 K SBO.  Board crush: $0.95, -1; LY, $0.98,-; 
• WH, dn $.03 @ $5.49; WK, dn $.0175 @ $5.4975.  Fund selling on Monday totaled 4 K                      

​ CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA WASDE at 11:00 CST Avg. trade est. U.S. corn carryout--19/20, 1.880 bbu (range 1.788-2.017) & 1.892 in Jan.
• USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. Brazil corn crop--19/20, 100.9 MMT; Argentina corn crop—19/20, 49.8 MMT

·       ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 corn ending stocks are forecast at 2.107 bbu compared to the January USDA estimate of 1.892 bbu

·       U.S. corn exports for 19/20 crop year through Feb. 6 totaled 453 mbu, which is 51% below last year’s total of 915 mbu

• T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, below normal rain is forecast for Mato Grosso over the next 10 days.  Thus, favorable weather for planting of safrinha (double crop) corn is likely (Mato Grosso is Brazil’s #1 safrinha corn producing state)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA WASDE 11:00 CST: Avg. trade est. U.S. soybean carryout--19/20, 0.448 bbu (range 0.320-0.520) & 0.475 in Jan.
• USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. Brazil soybean crop--19/20, 123.7 MMT; Argentina bean crop—19/20, 53.1 MMT

·       ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 soybean ending stocks forecast at 0.470 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 0.475 bbu

·       U.S. soybean exports for 19/20 through Feb. 6 totaled 1.000 bbu, which is 20% above last year’s total of 0.835 bbu

• USDA WASDE at 11:00 CST: Avg. trade est. U.S. wheat carryout--19/20, 0.959 bbu (range 0.934-0.999) & 0.965 in Jan.

·       T-storm Weather®: recent rain & snow has wiped out drought for wheat in Russia & Ukraine.  Temps remain much warmer-than-normal, suggesting winter crops will break dormancy earlier than normal barring a sharp pattern change

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLH20, +$0.88@ $50.45; EBJ, +$0.93 @ $54.50; EBJ-QCLJ, +.11; RBH, +.0146; NGH, -.008; HOH, +.0286

·       Chicago ethanol was steady on Monday; basis, ****mostly weaker:  NYC, -$.0050 @ $.0925; Gulf, -$.0050 @ $.1125; Dallas, -$.0050 @ +$.0875; Tampa, -$.0050 @ +$.1825; LA, unch @ +$.22250

·       Ethanol RINs values, firmer: 2018’s, +3.00 @ 19 ½-21; 2019’s, +3.00 @ 21 ½ -23; 2020’s, +3.25 @ 26 ½ -28                            &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                 

​ ·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread firmed $.0060 at $.1833/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                ​;          

• Choice boxed beef was $1.21 lower on Monday at $208.91 and is down $2.65 compared to a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $0.99 v. last week to $121.05/cwt, and is down $3.93 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 91-cents on Mon. to $64.21 but is down $4.53 vs. last week  

·         Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.97/cwt vs. last week’s $39.21, last month’s $49.20 & last year’s $36.42              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®