Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly weaker:  CH, -$.0075; SH, +$.0025; WH, -$.0050; KWH, -$.0250 

·       What caught my eye: Somewhat surprised the USDA took U.S. soybean exports up as much as they did, 50 mbu as their must have considerable optimism regarding future Chinese buying for 19-20 delivery (unshipped sales at a 10-year low) 

·       Coronavirus worries ease, optimism over global growth potential.  Asia: Higher: Nikkei, +0.74%; Shanghai, +0.87%; Hang Seng, +0.87%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.75%; FTSE, +0.36%; CAC, +0.36%.  WALL STREET: Futures, higher--DOW, +130; S&P, +13.50; NAS, +50  EXTERNALS: March crude, +$0.84 @ $50.78; Gold: -$1.20 @ $1,569; Mar $ Index, +.031 @ 98.625

• T-storm Weather®: a favorable mix of weather continues for corn and soybeans in Argentina as frequent coolness coincides with occasional thunderstorms.  Some thunderstorms also continue in Brazil, but a wide area will be drier than normal for harvesting and planting over the next 10 days as areas of high pressure suppress rainfall, potentially followed by a wetter period central and north when a cool front approaches
• CH, dn $0.0075 @ $3.79; CK, dn $.0050 @ $3.8375.  The funds sold 4 K on report day    
• SH, up $.0025 @ $8.85; SK, up $.0050 @ $8.9775.  Funds: even SB & SBM, bot 1 K SBO.  Board crush: $0.93, -2; LY, $0.98,-; 
• WH, dn $.0075 @ $5.4125; WK, dn $.0125 @ $5.4275.  The funds were rather significant sellers, 8 K yesterday                       

CORN/SORGHUM

·&nb​sp;      Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 corn production est. is unch at 100.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward.  Breakdown for production is: full-season corn, 24.3 MMT; safrinha (double crop) corn, 74.5 MMT; third corn crop, 1.1 MMT

• T-storm Weather: in Argentina, total rainfall of 1.00” to 2.00” occurs south and 1.75” to 3.50” north over the next two weeks as temperatures average ideally cooler than normal for sensitive corn

·       Ethanol margins: $0.10 per gallon—down vs. $0.11 last week and below $0.18 in 2019.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is in the 25-30 mbu per week range compared to 31.2 mbu last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 soybean production est. is increased 1.0 MMT to 124.0 MMT, with a neutral to higher bias.  Record yields being seen in largest producing state of Mato Grosso, & conditions in northeast & south have improved 

• T-storm Weather: in Argentina, total rainfall of 1.00” to 2.00” occurs south and 1.75” to 3.50” north over the next two weeks as temperatures average ideally cooler than normal for sensitive soybeans

·       T-storm Weather: numerous rains induce river & field flooding for wheat near-term in U.S. Delta & far SE Corn Belt

• ATI Research: Combined wheat exports from Russia & Ukraine in latest week were dn 34% from same period in 2019

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLH20, +$0.84 @ $50.78; EBJ, +$1.13 @ $55.34; EBJ-QCLJ, +.37; RBH, +.0043; NGH, +.041; HOH, +.0337

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +3.0 (+6.0); Gasoline, +0.5 (+1.1); Distillates, -0.6 (-2.3).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.065 mbpd (range: 1.058-1.071).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.606 mb (range 23.400-23.950)

·       Chicago ethanol was again steady; basis, unch to weaker:  NYC, -$.0050 @ $.0875; Gulf, unch @ $.1125; Dallas, -$.0025 @ +$.0850; Tampa, -$.0025 @ +$.18; LA, unch @ +$.22250

·       Ethanol RINs values, firmer: 2018’s, +0.50 @ 20½-21; 2019’s, +0.50 @ 22 ½ -23; 2020’s, +0.50 @ 27 ½ -28                                     ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;        

·   &​nbsp;   The March RBOB/March ethanol spread again narrowed, $.0091 to $.1742/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &nbs​p;           

• Choice boxed beef fell $1.08 on Tuesday to $207.83 and is $3.10 lower versus last week 
• Light cash cattle trade developed on Tue. in parts of Colorado at $120, $1 lower than last week's trade in that area

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.36 on Tue. to $62.85 and is $3.90 lower versus a week ago  

·       CME Lean Hog Index was $0.53 lower on Tue. at $57.93.  February futures eased $0.075 & are $1.805 below the index             

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®