Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.
HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Mostly weaker: CH, -$.0075; SH, +$.0025; WH, -$.0050; KWH, -$.0250
· What caught my eye: Somewhat surprised the USDA took U.S. soybean exports up as much as they did, 50 mbu as their must have considerable optimism regarding future Chinese buying for 19-20 delivery (unshipped sales at a 10-year low)
· Coronavirus worries ease, optimism over global growth potential. Asia: Higher: Nikkei, +0.74%; Shanghai, +0.87%; Hang Seng, +0.87%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.75%; FTSE, +0.36%; CAC, +0.36%. WALL STREET: Futures, higher--DOW, +130; S&P, +13.50; NAS, +50 EXTERNALS: March crude, +$0.84 @ $50.78; Gold: -$1.20 @ $1,569; Mar $ Index, +.031 @ 98.625
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T-storm Weather®: a favorable mix of weather continues for corn and soybeans in Argentina as frequent coolness coincides with occasional thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms also continue in Brazil, but a wide area will be drier than normal for harvesting and planting over the next 10 days as areas of high pressure suppress rainfall, potentially followed by a wetter period central and north when a cool front approaches
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CH, dn $0.0075 @ $3.79; CK, dn $.0050 @ $3.8375. The funds sold 4 K on report day
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SH, up $.0025 @ $8.85; SK, up $.0050 @ $8.9775. Funds: even SB & SBM, bot 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.93, -2; LY, $0.98,-;
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WH, dn $.0075 @ $5.4125; WK, dn $.0125 @ $5.4275. The funds were rather significant sellers, 8 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
·  Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 corn production est. is unch at 100.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward. Breakdown for production is: full-season corn, 24.3 MMT; safrinha (double crop) corn, 74.5 MMT; third corn crop, 1.1 MMT
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T-storm Weather: in Argentina, total rainfall of 1.00” to 2.00” occurs south and 1.75” to 3.50” north over the next two weeks as temperatures average ideally cooler than normal for sensitive corn
· Ethanol margins: $0.10 per gallon—down vs. $0.11 last week and below $0.18 in 2019. EIA report at 9:30 am CST
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ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is in the 25-30 mbu per week range compared to 31.2 mbu last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 soybean production est. is increased 1.0 MMT to 124.0 MMT, with a neutral to higher bias. Record yields being seen in largest producing state of Mato Grosso, & conditions in northeast & south have improved
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T-storm Weather: in Argentina, total rainfall of 1.00” to 2.00” occurs south and 1.75” to 3.50” north over the next two weeks as temperatures average ideally cooler than normal for sensitive soybeans
· T-storm Weather: numerous rains induce river & field flooding for wheat near-term in U.S. Delta & far SE Corn Belt
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ATI Research: Combined wheat exports from Russia & Ukraine in latest week were dn 34% from same period in 2019
ENERGY
· Higher: CLH20, +$0.84 @ $50.78; EBJ, +$1.13 @ $55.34; EBJ-QCLJ, +.37; RBH, +.0043; NGH, +.041; HOH, +.0337
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +3.0 (+6.0); Gasoline, +0.5 (+1.1); Distillates, -0.6 (-2.3). Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.065 mbpd (range: 1.058-1.071). Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.606 mb (range 23.400-23.950)
· Chicago ethanol was again steady; basis, unch to weaker: NYC, -$.0050 @ $.0875; Gulf, unch @ $.1125; Dallas, -$.0025 @ +$.0850; Tampa, -$.0025 @ +$.18; LA, unch @ +$.22250
· Ethanol RINs values, firmer: 2018’s, +0.50 @ 20½-21; 2019’s, +0.50 @ 22 ½ -23; 2020’s, +0.50 @ 27 ½ -28      
·   The March RBOB/March ethanol spread again narrowed, $.0091 to $.1742/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef fell $1.08 on Tuesday to $207.83 and is $3.10 lower versus last week
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Light cash cattle trade developed on Tue. in parts of Colorado at $120, $1 lower than last week's trade in that area
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.36 on Tue. to $62.85 and is $3.90 lower versus a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.53 lower on Tue. at $57.93. February futures eased $0.075 & are $1.805 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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