HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly weak:  CN, -$.0025; SN, +$.0425; WN, -$.04; KWN, -$.03.  Dely: SBM, 22; BO, 1,466; RR 7; C, 223; HRW, 9

·       What caught my eye: Let’s see what the export sales report reveals this morning with the trade looking for a relatively strong corn number and soybeans, near the implied rate of 20/week 

·       Stocks are mixed, following solid gains yesterday from potential COVID-19 treatments. Asia: Firm-- Nikkei, +2.14%; Shanghai, +1.33%; Hang Seng, closed; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.09%; FTSE, -0.71%; CAC, -0.03%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Firm--DOW, +69; S&P, +3.25; NAS, +41.25.   EXTERNALS: June crude, +$2.55 @ $16.51; Gold: +$16.90 @ $1,730; Sep $ Index, -0.084 @ 99.570

·       T-storm Weather®: scattered rains continue today in eastern Corn Belt, while dry weather dominates elsewhere.  Two systems then streak through central U.S. Sat.-Tue., initially producing scattered (not widespread) thunderstorms on HRW wheat in CO, KS, NE Sat. night, then Sun. in southern Corn Belt and Delta.  A better-organized system and strong cool front then pass further north over Mon.-Tue., producing pockets of rain in much of the Corn Belt and Dakotas, but likely misses most HRW wheat to the south

• CN, dn $.0025 @ $3.1425; CU, dn $.0050 @ $3.2150.  Funds bought 5 K on hopes the economy will soon pick up    
• SN, up $.0425 @ $8.4175; SQ, up $.04 @ $8.425.  Funds bot 4 K SB, even SBM, bot 5 K SBO. Board crush: $0.75 (K/K), +3; LY, $1.13
• WN, dn $.04 @ $5.1250; WU, dn $.0350 @ $5.1750.  The funds sold 7 K as the precip outlook improves for Europe/Black Sea       

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 24-43 for 19/20 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: an unseasonably cool period occurs May 4-5 forward in the U.S., (esp. in Corn Belt), shifting deep humidity for heavy rain outside the region, but allowing weak systems to produce showers in varying areas each day

·       Ethanol grind: total of 537,000 barrels/day for the week ending April 24—down 26 thousand versus last week and down 47.6% compared to last year’s 1,024,000

·       Consultant: in Brazil, the half of the safrinha (double crop) corn planted in the north will probably be fine, but the half of the safrinha corn planted in south is in various stages of moisture stress as the crop is determining yield potential

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-28 mbu for 19/20 soybeans; soymeal, 100-300 K MT; soyoil, 8-35 

·       T-storm Weather®: an unseasonably cool period occurs May 4-5 forward in the U.S., (esp. in Corn Belt), shifting deep humidity for heavy rain outside the region, but allowing weak systems to produce showers in varying areas each day

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop estimate is unchanged at 50.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 4-13 mbu for 19/20 all wheat and 7-18 mbu for 20/21

·       T-storm Weather®: U.S HRW wheat will be divided by coolness to the east and warmth to the west within May 6-12, which should trigger scattered thunderstorms as the period progresses, resulting in near-normal rain of 0.50”-1.00”

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLM20, +$2.55 @ $16.51; EBM, +$2.80 @ $25.34; EBM-QCLM, +$0.30; RBM, +.0406; NGM, -.031; HOM, +.0576

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0880 higher at $1.0150/gallon; weaker:  NYC, -$.0050 @ $.0450; Gulf, -$.0080 @ $.0550; Dallas, -$.01550 @ +$.0950; Tampa, -$.0180 @ +$.1850; LA, -$.0155 @ +$.1250

·       Ethanol RINs values, firm. 2018’s, +1.75 @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +1.75 @ 29 -31 ½; 2020’s: +0.20 @ 36 -37                                   &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                     ​

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread was $.0040 wider at $.2478/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        ​               ​

• Choice boxed beef increased $26.56 on Wednesday to $357.38, and is $81.63 higher compared to last week
• A few cash cattle deals occurred on Wednesday in the South within a wide range of $90 to $100
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.99 higher on Wed. at $89.34, & is up $16.73 versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index gained $2.54 on Wed. to $52.26.  May futures firmed $1.225 and are $4.015 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®